Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines

The dollar is at 97.8 after three sessions of losses as the US government shutdown takes effect.

Gold jumps to $3,870 an ounce, near a record high, driven by market concerns.

Oil stabilizes after two-day decline: Brent at $66 and WTI at $62.

OPEC+ is considering a potential production increase of 274,000–411,000 barrels per day for November.

The US peace plan for Gaza has Israel’s support, but Hamas’s position remains ambiguous.

Bitcoin rebounds above $114,200 and faces resistance at $114,750.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Partially bullish with some corrections
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3,857

Scenario 1: Buy gold with a breakout and stability above 3,868, targeting 3,877 and then 3,885.

Alternative scenario: Sell gold on a break and hold below 3,852, targeting 3,843 and then 3,834.

Comment: Gold is showing buying power, but the current correction could put pressure on prices. The key trend is at 3,868.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 62.31

Scenario 1: Buy oil with a breakout and stability above 62.70, targeting 63.05 and then 63.40.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and hold below 61.79, targeting 61.43 and then 61.00.

Comment: Oil is facing strong selling pressure after the recent decline, with resistance at 62.70 a barrier to any upward rebound.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Up
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.1758

Scenario 1: Buy the euro after a breakout and stability above 1.1772, targeting 1.1799 and then 1.1819.

Alternative scenario: Sell the euro on a break and hold below 1.1739, targeting 1.1715 and then 1.1693.

Comment: The euro maintains its upward momentum after breaching the 1.1740 area, with 1.1772 as key resistance.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: Upward sloping
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.3464

Scenario 1: Buy the pound with a breakout and stability above 1.3473, targeting 1.3491 and then 1.3511.

Alternative scenario: Sell the pound on a break and hold below 1.3445, targeting 1.3424 and then 1.3405.

Comment: The pound is moving in a narrow range near important resistance. Any break above 1.3473 will support the continuation of the rise.

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NAS100

 

General trend: bearish.
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes).
Current price: 24,754.

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a breakout and hold above 24,837, targeting 24,956 and then 25,064.

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq on break and hold below 24,680, targeting 24,575 and then 24,467

Comment: The Nasdaq is trading around the 24,750 support level, and a break above it could open the way for a deeper decline.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

Eurozone: Consumer Price Index (YoY) – September – 12:00

United States: Change in private sector non-farm payrolls – ADP – September – 3:15 PM

United States: Manufacturing PMI (September) – 16:45

United States: ISM Manufacturing Index (September) – 17:00

US: Crude Oil Inventories – 17:30

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index held steady at 97.8 on Wednesday, but remained under significant pressure after the US government shutdown took effect following Congress’ failure to pass a short-term funding agreement. This development led to the suspension of numerous federal services and the furloughing of hundreds of thousands of government employees.

Concerns now focus on the duration of the shutdown, as a prolonged shutdown could delay the release of key economic data such as Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, further complicating the Federal Reserve’s outlook for its meeting in late October.

Recent US data has shown mixed signals: The JOLTS report revealed a slight increase in job openings, but highlighted weak hiring, reflecting a continued labor market slowdown. These indicators have raised the probability of an October interest rate cut to near certainty, with a 76% chance of an additional cut in December.

For gold, the yellow metal continued to rise to $3,870 per ounce, benefiting from a weaker dollar and the risk of a government shutdown, in addition to its role as a safe haven amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

In energy markets, oil prices stabilized after a two-day decline. West Texas Intermediate crude held steady at $62 a barrel, while Brent crude traded near $66. Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed a 3.7 million barrel drop in crude inventories, partially supporting prices. Meanwhile, reports indicated that eight OPEC+ members are considering increasing production by 274,000 to 411,000 barrels per day in November, which, if implemented, could pressure prices.

Bitcoin has begun a new recovery wave, surpassing $114,200, but it still faces strong resistance at $114,750, with closer support at $113,500.