enDaily Analysis 02/05/2025
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The US dollar index held above 100 on Friday and was on track for a second straight weekly gain, as easing global trade tensions reduced recession risks, boosting sentiment toward the currency.
Gold heads for weekly loss
China said it is considering starting trade talks with the United States, raising hopes for a de-escalation between the two global powers.
This came after President Trump stated that trade deals could be reached with India, Japan, and South Korea, adding that there was a “very good chance” of reaching an agreement with China.
Earlier this week, Trump also signed an executive order to ease some tariffs on cars and auto parts.
Meanwhile, recent data showed the US economy contracted in the first quarter, while the personal consumption expenditures price index remained flat in March.
Investors are now looking ahead to Friday’s non-farm payrolls report for further clues on the Fed’s policy path.
Oil prices fell
amid supply concerns ahead of next week’s OPEC+ meeting, with Brent crude trading at $62.00 and West Texas Intermediate at $59.00.
The United States has already imposed sanctions on several Chinese refineries for purchasing Iranian crude oil, as well as on several companies and vessels involved in transporting it.
In addition to the positive sentiment, China indicated its willingness to resume trade talks with the United States, raising hopes for a de-escalation in tensions between the world’s two largest oil consumers.
But oil remains on track for a weekly loss of more than 5%, pressured by ongoing risks stemming from trade developments and demand concerns after US GDP data showed a contraction and China’s worst factory sector recession in more than two years.
Expectations of increased supply from OPEC+ also impacted prices, with Saudi Arabia indicating it can withstand lower prices and may push for increased production at its May meeting.
Bitcoin price is rising again above $94,000. Bitcoin is showing positive signs and may target a break above the resistance level at $95,500.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3261.86
First scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 3265.08, targeting 3274.11 and 3282.28.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold after breaking and holding below 3249.75, targeting 3240.31 and then 3231.21.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $59.10 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a breakout and hold steady with a candle closing above $59.42, targeting $59.78 and then $60.13.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil after breaking the $58.87 level, targeting $58.51 and then $58.08.
Comment: Trading below the resistance and moving averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.13218
Scenario 1: Buy EUR/USD after breaking 1.13381, targeting 1.13642 and then 1.13849.
Alternative scenario: Sell EUR/USD after a breakout and hold steady with a candle close below 1.12959, targeting 1.12784 and then 1.12583.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.33011
Scenario 1: Buy GBP/USD with a break and hold above 1.33236, targeting 1.33412 and then 1.33611.
Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD after breaking and closing below 1.32980, targeting 1.32745 and then 1.32555.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 19950
Scenario 1: Buy the Nasdaq after a breakout and hold steady with a close above 20024, targeting 20143 and then 2251.
Alternative scenario: Sell the Nasdaq after a break and close below 19,867, targeting 19,762 and then 19,654.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-From Europe Consumer Price Index (YoY) (April) 12:00
From the United States of America Average Hourly Wages (Monthly) (April) 15:30
From the United States of America, Non-Farm Employment Report (April) 15:30
United States Unemployment Rate (April) 15:30
Fundamental Analysis
The US dollar index held above 100 on Friday and was on track for a second straight weekly gain, as easing global trade tensions reduced recession risks, boosting sentiment toward the currency.
China announced that it is evaluating the possibility of holding trade talks with the United States, after multiple attempts by Washington.
Earlier this week, President Donald Trump also hinted at potential trade agreements with India, Japan, and South Korea, and expressed confidence in a potential deal with China.
Meanwhile, the latest GDP, private sector jobs, and weekly unemployment claims data pointed to a slowdown in US economic activity, supporting bets on a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate cut and limiting the dollar’s rise.
Investors are now turning to the April jobs report, which could give them more insight into how changing trade policies are impacting the economy.
Gold held steady around $3,230 an ounce on Friday, remaining near a two-week low and heading for a second straight weekly loss, as easing trade tensions dampened demand for safe-haven assets.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures rose to around $59.50 a barrel on Friday, after President Trump threatened to impose secondary sanctions on countries that buy Iranian oil.
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