enDaily Analysis 02/06/2025
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index fell toward 99 on Monday, erasing the previous week’s gains as investor sentiment deteriorated amid renewed trade tensions.
Gold rises after Trump’s renewed tariff threat.
Trump said on Friday he would double the current tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50%, effective June 4.
This announcement comes amid an ongoing legal battle over the legality of some of Trump’s tariff policies, which an appeals court allowed to continue after the International Trade Court ordered the administration to halt the taxes.
Adding to market anxiety, Trump accused China of violating the tariff truce reached in early May, a claim to which Beijing responded by accusing the United States of violations.
On the geopolitical front, a Ukrainian drone attack destroyed more than 40 Russian aircraft inside Russian territory, while Moscow bombarded Ukraine with missiles and drones just hours before the two sides were due to meet for a new round of direct talks in Istanbul.
OPEC+ raises oil production in July to 411,000 barrels per day, with Brent crude trading at $64.00 and WTI at $61.00.
The decision was made during a virtual meeting where member states—including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—assessed global market conditions.
Initially, the group planned a modest increase of 134,000 barrels per day, but revised its strategy, citing “the stable global economic outlook and currently sound market fundamentals, as reflected in the decline in oil inventories.” The statement emphasized that these gradual increases are subject to temporary pause or reversal based on market developments.
OPEC+ aims to carefully roll back its latest round of production cuts while maintaining stability in the global oil market.
This adjustment indicates confidence in economic conditions, but also a willingness to adjust as necessary.
Bitcoin price began a new decline, testing the $103,200 level. Bitcoin is now stabilizing and could target a recovery wave above $106,000.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3330.20
First scenario: Buy gold with a break and hold above 3334.53, targeting 3343.56 and 3351.72.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and hold below 3319.20, targeting 3309.76 and then 3300.66.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $61.80 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a breakout and hold steady with a candle closing above $62.10, targeting $62.46 and then $62.81.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil after breaking the $61.56 level, targeting $61.20 and then $60.77.
Comment: Trading below the resistance and moving averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.13865
First scenario: Buy the EUR/USD after breaking 1.13957, targeting 1.14218 and then 1.14424.
Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD after a breakout and hold steady with a candle closing below 1.13534, targeting 1.13360 and then 1.13158.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.35102
Scenario 1: Buy GBP/USD with a break and hold above 1.35205, targeting 1.35381 and then 1.35580.
Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD after breaking and closing below 1.34913, targeting 1.34714 and then 1.34524.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 21217
Scenario 1: Buy the Nasdaq after a breakout and close above 21337, targeting 21456 and then 21564.
Alternative scenario: Sell the Nasdaq after a break and close below 21180, targeting 21075 and then 20967.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-From the United States of America: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (May) 16:45
-From the United States of America: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index issued by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) (May) 17:00
-Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s speech 20:00
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index fell toward 99 on Monday, erasing the previous week’s gains as investor sentiment deteriorated amid renewed trade tensions.
This decline came after President Donald Trump announced that the United States would double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50%, effective June 4.
Tensions with China also escalated after Beijing rejected Trump’s claim that it had violated the trade agreement reached in Geneva last month, casting doubt on the possibility of a phone call between the two countries’ leaders in the near future.
However, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said over the weekend that a conversation between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could take place as early as this week.
Market participants are now turning their focus to a series of upcoming US economic data releases – including Friday’s highly anticipated monthly jobs report – which could provide further insight into the economic impact of shifting trade policies.
Gold prices rose to around $3,310 an ounce on Monday after President Donald Trump’s renewed threat of tariffs spurred demand for safe-haven assets.
Brent crude futures rose about 2% to around $63.9 a barrel on Monday, following OPEC+’s decision to increase production in July, in line with market expectations.
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