Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic Insights

 

The dollar holds near 97.8 ahead of this week’s US jobs data.

Gold is hovering around $3,490 an ounce, near its all-time high.

Oil continues its gains: Brent crude at $68 and WTI at $65, supported by supply concerns.

Markets are pricing in a 90% rate cut at the next Fed meeting, supported by Mary Daly’s comments.

A US appeals court finds most of Trump’s tariffs unlawful, extending them until October 14.

A top Bitcoin whale has sold over 31,000 BTC since mid-August, still holding 50,000 BTC (worth $5.4 billion).

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 3,496.54

Scenario 1: Buy gold on a breakout and hold above 3,502.55, targeting 3,511.58 and then 3,519.75.

Alternative scenario: Sell gold on a break and hold below 3,487.22, targeting 3,477.78 and then 3,469.26.

Comment: Gold continues to trade near new highs, and a breakout of the upper channel could open the way for further gains.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 64,632

Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and hold above 65.032, targeting 65.392 and then 65.739.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and hold below 64.028, targeting 63.770 and then 63.339.

Comment: Oil is trading at strong resistance levels, and a break above them could bolster the upward trend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.16948

Scenario 1: Buy the euro on a break and hold above 1.17206, targeting 1.17467 and then 1.17673.

Alternative scenario: Sell the euro on a break and hold below 1.16783, targeting 1.16609 and then 1.16407.

Comment: The euro is trading positively after rebounding from support levels, suggesting a continued upward trend.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.35256

Scenario 1: Buy the pound with a break and hold above 1.35366, targeting 1.35543 and then 1.35742.

Alternative scenario: Sell the pound on a break and hold below 1.35075, targeting 1.34876 and then 1.34686.

Comment: The pound is holding above strong support and testing a critical resistance area, and the breakout opens the way for further upside.

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NAS100

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 23,423.75

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold above 23,543.75, targeting 23,663.00 and then 23,770.75

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq on breakout and hold below 23,386.75 with target at 23,282.00 then 23,173.75

Comment: The Nasdaq is trading near critical support areas, and a break below could reinforce the downside extension.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From the Eurozone: Consumer Price Index (YoY) – August – 12:00.

From the United States of America:

Manufacturing PMI (August) – 16:45.

ISM Manufacturing PMI (August) – 17:00.

US President Trump’s speech – 21:00.

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index held steady at 97.8 on Tuesday as trading resumed after the Labor Day holiday, amid widespread anticipation of US jobs data, particularly Friday’s nonfarm payrolls, which will largely determine the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

Markets are currently pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut in September with nearly 90% probability, after recent inflation data supported this trend. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly confirmed that the central bank is prepared to ease monetary policy to protect the labor market, noting that tariff-related inflation may be temporary.

In addition, uncertainty remains regarding the Federal Reserve’s independence, given President Trump’s efforts to remove Governor Lisa Cook. Controversy also continues over Trump’s tariffs, which were deemed unlawful by an appeals court but left in place until October 14.

Gold rose to around $3,490 an ounce, hovering near a record high, benefiting from a weaker dollar, expectations of monetary easing, and increased demand for safe havens.

In energy markets, West Texas Intermediate crude rose to $65 a barrel, while Brent crude reached $68, amid concerns about Russian supply disruptions following Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, expectations of a supply surplus and the agenda for this week’s OPEC+ meeting remain closely watched by investors.

In the cryptocurrency market, a major whale has sold more than 31,000 Bitcoins since mid-August, raising concerns among traders, even though he still holds around 50,000 BTC, valued at $5.4 billion at current prices.