Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines

The dollar stabilizes at 97.7 after four straight sessions of losses as concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve ease after the Supreme Court ruling.

Gold holds gains near $3,860 an ounce, supported by expectations of a rate cut and safe-haven demand.

Oil settles at four-month lows: Brent at $65 and WTI at $61-62.

ADP report shows US private sector employment fell by 32,000 jobs in September, the largest decline since March 2023.

Bitcoin breaks $118,000 and continues its gains, with a potential short-term correction.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Upward within a price channel

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 3,864

Scenario 1: Buy gold with a breakout and stability above 3,872, targeting 3,881 and then 3,889.

Alternative scenario: Sell gold on a break and hold below 3,857, targeting 3,847 and then 3,838.

Comment: Gold is consolidating near the upper channel line, and any upward breakout could open the way for further gains.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: bearish in the short term

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 61.87

Scenario 1: Buy oil with a breakout and stability above 62.30, targeting 62.66 and then 63.00.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and hold below 61.39, targeting 61.03 and then 60.60.

Comment: Oil is moving volatility near a support area; the next direction depends on breaking 61.39 or breaching 62.30.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.1732

Scenario 1: Buy the euro with a breakout and stability above 1.1744, targeting 1.1782 and then 1.1803.

Alternative scenario: Sell the euro on a break and hold below 1.1714, targeting 1.1696 and then 1.1676.

Comment: The pair is trapped between strong support and resistance, any break or penetration will clearly define the path.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: Upward in the short term

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.3477

Scenario 1: Buy the pound with a breakout and stability above 1.3489, targeting 1.3506 and then 1.3526.

Alternative scenario: Sell the pound after breaking and holding below 1.3471, targeting 1.3440 and then 1.3421.

Comment: The pound rebounded from strong support areas, and any break above 1.3489 will support the continuation of the upward momentum.

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NAS100

 

General trend: Strongly bullish after breaking through resistance levels

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 25,050

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a breakout and hold above 25,125, targeting 25,244 and then 25,352.

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq on break and hold below 24,968, targeting 24,863 and then 24,755

Comment: The index has pushed strongly upwards, and the trend will remain bullish as long as it maintains trading above 24,968.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

No significant economic data

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index stabilized at 97.7 on Thursday after a series of losses, supported by the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to schedule a hearing in January on President Trump’s attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. This move temporarily eased uncertainty and signaled to markets that the Federal Reserve’s leadership will remain stable for now.

Pressure on the dollar continued this week due to the US government shutdown, the first in nearly seven years. This stalemate led to the postponement of vital data such as the September nonfarm payrolls report, further clouding expectations regarding the path of monetary policy.

On the data side, the ADP report showed an unexpected decline in US private sector employment of 32,000 jobs, compared to expectations of a 50,000 increase. This is the first consecutive monthly decline since 2020. This has reinforced bets that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates in its meetings for the remainder of the year, especially given weak employment and slowing growth.

Gold continued to hover near its all-time high, reaching $3,860 per ounce, supported by increased demand for safe havens amid fears of a US government shutdown and ongoing political uncertainty.

In energy markets, oil prices stabilized near four-month lows. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude held steady at $62, while Brent crude traded at $65, amid persistent concerns about oversupply after US crude inventories rose by 1.8 million barrels. Expectations that OPEC+ may agree to an additional production increase at its upcoming meeting this week are adding further pressure to prices, at a time when global fuel demand is showing clear signs of weakness.

Bitcoin broke through the $118,000 level in a strong upward trend, but it faces potential resistance, with a potential short-term correction before continuing the upward trend.