Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic Insights

 

The dollar rises above 98.4, supported by safe-haven demand ahead of key data.

Gold holds steady at record highs above $3,530 an ounce amid rising political and economic risks.

Oil holds gains: Brent at $68, WTI at $65.7.

Markets are pricing in a 92% rate cut this month, as they await US jobs data.

Ukrainian attacks shut down 17% of Russia’s refining capacity, adding to global supply pressures.

Bitcoin may continue to correct, with only 9% of the supply still at risk of loss.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Upward
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3,532.88
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and hold above 3,542.15, targeting 3,551.18 and then 3,559.34
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and hold below 3,526.82, targeting 3,517.38 and then 3,508.28
Comment: Gold continues to move within an ascending channel, and holding above the resistance supports the continuation of the rise to new levels.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: Sideways bullish
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 65.129
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and hold above 65.624, targeting 65.984 and then 66.332
Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and hold below 64.721, targeting 64.362 and then 63.931
Comment: Oil is trading near a strong resistance, and breaking it may open the way towards higher highs.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Bearish
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.16321
Scenario 1: Buy the Euro on a break and hold above 1.16535, targeting 1.16689 and then 1.16797
Alternative scenario: Sell the Euro on a break and hold below 1.16113, targeting 1.15939 and then 1.15737
Comment: The Euro is trading under selling pressure, but a rebound from the support is possible before any further decline.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: Down
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.33684
Scenario 1: Buy the pound with a break and hold above 1.33856, targeting 1.34032 and then 1.34231
Alternative scenario: Sell the pound with a break and hold below 1.33564, targeting 1.33365 and then 1.33176
Comment: The pound is trading near critical support areas, and the next price action may determine the direction in the near term.

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NAS100

 

General trend: Down
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 23,314.50
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold above 23,366.75, targeting 23,420.75 and then 23,540.00
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with a break and hold below 23,263.75, targeting 23,159.00 and then 23,051.00
Comment: Nasdaq is facing strong selling pressure, but any rebound from the current support may provide a short-term opportunity to rise.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From the USA: Job Opportunities (JOLTS) – July – 17:00.

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index rose above 98.4 on Wednesday, building on recent momentum as investors awaited key economic data, including the JOLTS job openings report and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report.

Although markets are still pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut in September at nearly 92%, demand for the dollar has returned strongly, thanks to its perceived safe haven status amid economic uncertainty, ongoing trade tensions, and rising geopolitical risks. Concerns about rising debt burdens in major economies have also boosted hedging interest.

Gold held steady at record highs above $3,530 an ounce, supported by expectations of US monetary easing and increased demand for safe-haven assets amid escalating disputes between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve over its independence, as well as concerns over US tariffs.

In energy markets, West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled near $65.70 a barrel, gaining more than 1%, supported by recent US sanctions on companies and vessels involved in transporting Iranian oil, along with Ukrainian attacks that shut down approximately 17% of Russian refining capacity. Despite these risks, some pressure remains due to weak US data showing the manufacturing sector contracting for the sixth consecutive month.

In the cryptocurrency market, analysts have indicated that Bitcoin’s correction may deepen in the near term, despite the fact that the supply is only 9% vulnerable to loss, which could leave room for a recovery later.