Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines

The dollar held steady at 97.8 as markets shrugged off the immediate impact of the US government shutdown.

Gold is at $3,860, heading for its seventh consecutive weekly gain, supported by expectations of a rate cut.

Oil is trading at $64 for Brent and $60 for West Texas Intermediate, heading for its worst week in more than three months.

US labor reports (ADP, JOLTS, Challenger) point to weak hiring, boosting interest rate cut bets.

Bitcoin approaches its all-time high of $124,128 amid renewed optimism but high volatility.

---

 

Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

---

 

GOLD

 

General trend: oscillating within an ascending channel

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 3,857

Scenario 1: Buy gold with a breakout and stability above 3,861, targeting 3,870 and then 3,878.

Alternative scenario: Sell gold on a break and hold below 3,846, targeting 3,836 and then 3,827.

Comment: Gold rebounded from strong support at 3,846, monitoring price action near 3,861 is important to determine the next trend.

---

 

CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: bearish in the short term

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 60.75

Scenario 1: Buy oil with a breakout and stability above 61.09, targeting 61.45 and then 61.80.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and hold below 60.19, targeting 59.83 and then 59.40.

Comment: Oil is trading near a supply zone, and a break of 61.09 or a dip below 60.19 will clearly define the direction.

---

 

EURUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.1717

Scenario 1: Buy the euro with a breakout and stability above 1.1733, targeting 1.1769 and then 1.1789.

Alternative scenario: Sell the euro on a break and hold below 1.1700, targeting 1.1683 and then 1.1663.

Comment: The pair is moving in a narrow sideways range, and a break above 1.1733 or breaking 1.1700 will determine the direction.

---

GBPUSD

 

General trend: Short-term bearish after the failure of the recent rise

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.3433

Scenario 1: Buy the pound with a breakout and stability above 1.3470, targeting 1.3490 and then 1.3509.

Alternative scenario: Sell the pound after breaking and holding below 1.3423, targeting 1.3403 and then 1.3384.

Comment: The pound lost upward momentum near 1.35, and a break below 1.3423 could trigger additional selling pressure.

---

 

NAS100

 

General trend: strongly bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 25,233

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a breakout and hold above 25,250, targeting 25,353 and then 25,460.

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq on break and hold below 25,087, targeting 24,971 and then 24,863

Comment: The index continues its upward momentum, and any break above 25,250 could pave the way to all-time highs.

---

 

Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

Services PMI (September) – 16:45

ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (September) – 17:00

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index held steady around 97.8 on Friday as markets shrugged off the immediate impact of the U.S. government shutdown, despite mounting political uncertainty, inflation risks, and a weak labor market. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant warned that a prolonged shutdown could weigh on economic growth, while President Trump threatened widespread federal employee layoffs to pressure Democrats.

On the monetary front, Dallas Federal Reserve President Lori Logan emphasized that last month’s interest rate cut was necessary to protect the labor market, but stressed the need not to rush into further easing. However, markets are almost fully pricing in another 25 basis point cut this month, with an additional cut likely by December.

Gold held steady at $3,860 an ounce, supported by continued safe-haven flows and dovish policy expectations, nearing its seventh consecutive weekly gain.

Oil remained under pressure, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude trading at around $60.8 a barrel and Brent at $64. The decline followed data showing rising US inventories and weak gasoline demand, as well as expectations that OPEC+ will continue to increase production by up to 500,000 barrels per day in November, raising concerns about oversupply.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, has gradually risen, breaching $114,000 and heading towards the historic resistance level of $124,128. Despite the return of optimism to the market, data from trading platforms like Binance shows that the gains barely outweigh the risks associated with the digital asset’s volatility, increasing the likelihood of sharp movements ahead.