enDaily Analysis 04/06/2025
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The US dollar index fell to around 99.1 on Wednesday, giving up some of the previous session’s gains as investors awaited a series of labor market reports that could shape Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Gold prices rise due to trade and geopolitical risks.
On Tuesday, the OECD lowered its global growth forecast, citing increasing pressure on the US economy due to escalating trade tensions.
This situation was exacerbated by weak factory orders in the United States, but was mitigated by signs of labor market resilience.
Meanwhile, President Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum took effect on Wednesday, further straining global trade relations.
Tensions between Washington and Beijing also remained high after mutual accusations of violating the trade agreement.
Markets are now awaiting a possible meeting between President Trump and President Xi later this week.
On the geopolitical front, Ukraine and Russia continued hostilities despite ongoing peace talks, while an Iranian diplomat indicated that Tehran was likely to reject the US proposal to resolve the nuclear dispute.
Oil pares gains, with Brent crude trading at $65.00 and WTI at $62.00.
Rainfall in Canada also helped slow wildfires that had disrupted about 7% of the country’s oil production, allowing at least one oil sands operator to resume operations.
In an attempt to limit losses, industry data showed a larger-than-expected drop in US crude inventories, with inventories falling by 3.3 million barrels last week—far more than the expected 0.9 million barrel drop.
Meanwhile, geopolitical risks continued to support prices.
Ongoing concerns about potential supply disruptions due to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine remained in focus.
In addition, an Iranian diplomat indicated that Tehran is likely to reject the US proposal aimed at resolving the long-standing nuclear dispute.
Bitcoin price began a new decline, testing the $103,200 level. Bitcoin is now recovering and facing obstacles near the $107,000 level.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3357.47
First scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 3362.60, targeting 3371.63 and 3379.80.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and hold below 3347.27, targeting 3337.83 and then 3328.73.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $62.57 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a breakout and hold steady with a candle closing above $62.87, targeting $63.23 and then $63.58.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil after breaking the $62.32 level, targeting $61.96 and then $61.53.
Comment: Trading below the resistance and moving averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.13723
First scenario: Buy the EUR/USD after breaking 1.13948, targeting 1.14209 and then 1.14416.
Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD after a breakout and hold steady with a candle close below 1.13525, targeting 1.13351 and then 1.13149.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.35174
Scenario 1: Buy GBP/USD with a break and hold above 1.35340, targeting 1.35517 and then 1.35715.
Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD after breaking and closing below 1.35049, targeting 1.34850 and then 1.34660.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 21690 Scenario 1: Buy the Nasdaq after a break and hold steady with a close above 21769, targeting 21888 and then 21996
Alternative scenario: Sell the Nasdaq after a breakout and close below 21612, targeting 21507 and then 21399.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-From the United States: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (May) 15:15
-From the United States: Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (May) 16:45
-From Canada: Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision 16:45
-From the United States of America, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (May) 17:00
-US crude oil inventories 17:30
Fundamental Analysis
The US dollar index fell to around 99.1 on Wednesday, giving up some of the previous session’s gains as investors awaited a series of labor market reports that could shape Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Focus now turns to the ADP private sector payrolls report due on Wednesday, followed by the weekly jobless claims report on Thursday and the closely watched May jobs report on Friday.
Job openings unexpectedly rose to 7.39 million in April, up from a revised 7.2 million in March and well above expectations of 7.1 million, JOLTs data showed Tuesday, indicating continued resilience in the labor market.
Federal Reserve officials largely support keeping interest rates steady for now, citing uncertainty over trade policy, despite pressure from President Trump to cut rates.
The US dollar weakened broadly, with the biggest drop against the South Korean won following the election of opposition leader Lee Jae-myung as president, which eased political uncertainty in the region.
Gold rose toward $3,370 an ounce on Wednesday, recouping some of the losses from the previous session as rising geopolitical and economic risks boosted its appeal as a safe haven.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures fell to around $63 a barrel on Wednesday, paring gains from the previous session, as OPEC+ plans to boost production continued to ease concerns about tightening global supplies.
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