Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic Insights

 

Dollar rises towards 99 after earlier decline driven by weak jobs report

Gold retreats after biggest daily gain since June

The US labor market shows signs of slowing, and Trump fires the Census Bureau commissioner.

OPEC+ announces a 547,000 barrel production increase in September.

Bitcoin begins August with a sharp drop below $113,000

Markets brace for Trump’s threat of secondary sanctions on Russian oil buyers

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Sideways

Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3,358.28
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and hold above 3,365.62, targeting 3,374.65 and then 3,382.82
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and hold below 3,350.29, targeting 3,340.85 and then 3,331.75
Comment: The price is fluctuating within a narrow horizontal channel, and a breakout to one of the two ends will determine the next path

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: Sideways

Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 66.852
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and hold above 67.170, targeting 67.530 and then 67.878
Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and hold below 66.267, targeting 65.908 and then 65.478
Comment: Oil is gradually recovering from a sharp decline, and the current resistance constitutes a major obstacle to the rise

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EURUSD

 

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General trend: Bullish in the short term
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.15821
Scenario 1: Buy EUR/USD with a break and hold above 1.15957, targeting 1.16218 and then 1.16425
Alternative scenario: Sell EUR/USD with a break and hold below 1.15535, targeting 1.15360 and then 1.15159
Comment: The price is consolidating around a pivotal resistance, and the break may direct the movement for the coming days

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: Upward
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.32911
Scenario 1: Buy GBP/USD with a break and hold above 1.32976, targeting 1.33153 and then 1.33351
Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD with a break and hold below 1.32685, targeting 1.32486 and then 1.32296
Comment: The price has broken the averages and is leaning towards the upside unless the nearby support is broken

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NAS100

 

General trend: Bullish in the short term
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 22,991.75
Scenario 1: Buy the Nasdaq with a break and hold above 23,074.25, targeting 23,193.50 and then 23,301.00
Alternative scenario: Sell the Nasdaq with a break and hold below 22,917.00, targeting 22,812.50 and then 22,704.25
Comment: The price is gradually recovering after a downward wave, and monitoring the current resistance is necessary to confirm the trend

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

Holiday in Britain and Canada

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The US dollar index held near 99 on Monday, following a sharp drop of more than 1% on Friday, as markets reassessed expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

The previous decline came as a result of nonfarm payrolls data showing an increase of only 73,000 jobs in July, far below expectations, and a negative revision of 258,000 jobs for the previous months, reflecting a sharp slowdown in the labor market.

In a remarkable development, President Trump fired Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erica McIntarver, accusing her of “falsifying data,” adding political tension to the economic landscape.

This report reinforced expectations of a rate cut at the September meeting, with markets now anticipating more than 63 basis points of reduction by the end of 2025.

In contrast, gold fell to around $3,350 an ounce on Monday, following strong gains on Friday of 2.2%—the highest since June—driven by rising bets on interest rate cuts and investor demand for safe havens after Trump announced sweeping new tariffs starting on August 7.

In the energy market, West Texas Intermediate crude fell below $67 per barrel, affected by OPEC+’s decision to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September.

This move comes amid US pressure on India to limit its imports of Russian oil, and Trump’s threat of 100% secondary sanctions on buyers, potentially impacting more than 2.75 million barrels per day of Moscow’s exports.

New tariffs that took effect on August 1 also contributed to increased concerns about global demand.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, opened August with a sharp drop from $118,330 on Friday to $112,300 on Sunday, continuing its poor performance in one of the worst months of the year in history for the digital currency.