Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines

The dollar holds near 98.1 as investors await crucial US jobs data this week.

Gold maintains its high levels near $3,540 per ounce after strong gains since the beginning of the year (+40%).

Oil falls: Brent crude at $67, WTI near $63 on oversupply concerns.

JOLTS data showed the lowest level of job openings since September 2024 at 7.18 million.

Markets are pricing in a 98% chance of a rate cut at this month’s Fed meeting.

OPEC+ is considering further production increases after September, adding downward pressure on prices.

Trump-linked American Bitcoin jumps 16% in first day of trading on Nasdaq.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 3,531.90

Scenario 1: Buy gold with a breakout and stability above 3,539.24, targeting 3,545.98 and then 3,554.14.

Alternative scenario: Sell gold on a break and hold below 3,521.62, targeting 3,512.18 and then 3,503.08

Comment: Gold is testing a minor support area, and a rebound from it is possible, but a break down opens the way for a deeper correction.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 63,237

Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and hold above 63.586, targeting 63.946 and then 64.294.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and stability below 62.683, targeting 62.324 and then 61.894.

Comment: Oil is trading in a downtrend near important support areas; a break below would increase selling pressure.

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EURUSD

 

General direction: Horizontal

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.16574

Scenario 1: Buy the euro on a breakout and hold above 1.16808, targeting 1.17070 and then 1.17276.

Alternative scenario: Sell the euro on a break and hold below 1.16386, targeting 1.16212 and then 1.16010.

Comment: The euro is facing key resistance around 1.16700, and a break above it would boost the upside.

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GBPUSD

 

General direction: Horizontal

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.34309

Scenario 1: Buy the pound with a break and hold above 1.34423, targeting 1.34599 and then 1.34798.

Alternative scenario: Sell the pound after breaking and holding below 1.34131, targeting 1.33993 and then 1.33743.

Comment: The pound is fluctuating near a support area, and breaking it will confirm selling pressure.

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NAS100

 

General direction: Horizontal

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 23,473.25

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold above 23,564.25, targeting 23,683.50 and then 23,791.25

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq on breakout and hold below 23,407.25, targeting 23,302.50 and then 23,194.50

Comment: The Nasdaq is moving in a narrow range, and a break of any of the pivot levels will determine the direction of the session.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From the United States of America:

ADP Private Sector Employment Change – August – 3:15 PM.

Unemployment complaints rates – 3:30 PM.

Services PMI – August – 16:45.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) – August – 17:00.

Crude oil inventories – 19:00.

Fed’s Balance Sheet – 23:30.

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index held near 98.1 on Thursday after falling in the previous session, as investors awaited labor market data that will determine the direction of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Focus today is on the ADP private sector report and jobless claims, followed tomorrow by the nonfarm payrolls report, the most important event for markets this week.

The dollar’s decline on Wednesday came after JOLTS data showed that job openings fell by 176,000 to 7.18 million, the lowest level in nearly a year, reflecting a weak labor market. Additionally, US factory orders declined for the second consecutive month, increasing the prospect of monetary easing.

Markets are currently pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut in September with a probability of nearly 98%, supported by repeated signals from Fed officials and continued weak data.

Gold held near $3,540 an ounce after snapping its longest winning streak since March, but remains supported by rising safe-haven demand, political uncertainty related to tariffs and US debt, and expectations of interest rate cuts.

In energy markets, West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell to $63, extending their 2.5% decline, amid concerns that OPEC+ may begin increasing supplies to recoup its market share. US inventory data also showed a 0.6 million barrel increase, contrary to expectations, reflecting weak demand.

In cryptocurrency markets, the Trump family-linked company American Bitcoin ended its first day on the Nasdaq with a gain of over 16%, adding millions of dollars to the family’s fortune despite overall market volatility.