Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic Insights

Top headlines:

The U.S. dollar advanced to a two-week high, supported by ongoing geopolitical developments and investor positioning ahead of key U.S. economic data releases.

Gold extended its upward trajectory, underpinned by heightened geopolitical risk and escalating concerns surrounding the situation in Venezuela.

Oil prices edged lower despite persistent geopolitical tensions, as markets anticipate minimal disruptions to global supply.

Bitcoin exhibited strong bullish momentum, breaking above the $91,000 level amid improving market sentiment and technical strength.

Smart technical reports

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

GOLD

Trend: Corrective uptrend within a defined channel
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: $4,417.75
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above $4,425.07
Targets: $4,436.53 , then $4,451.64
Alternative Scenario : Sell on a breakdown below $4,398.20
Targets: $4,383.81 , then $4,367.22
Note: Gold retains positive momentum following a strong rebound but remains below the upper resistance levels of the channel.

CRUDE OIL

Trend: Bearish
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: $56.850
Primary Scenario : Buy on a breakout above $57.075
Targets: $57.434, then $57.782
Alternative Scenario : Sell on a breakdown below $56.576
Targets: $56.217 then $55.786
Note: Oil failed to sustain its recent rebound, and staying below $57.07 maintains the bearish outlook.

EURUSD

Trend: Bearish
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.16840
Primary Scenario : Buy on a breakout above 1.16964
Targets: 1.17194 then 1.17342
Alternative Scenario (: Sell on a breakdown below 1.16694
Targets: 1.16519 then 1.16317
Note: The pair remains under clear selling pressure, and a breakdown would support the continuation of the downward wave.

GBPUSD

Trend: Bearish
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.34270
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.34569
Targets: 1.34768 then 1.35040
Alternative Scenario : Sell on a breakdown below 1.34101
Targets: 1.33902 then 1.33712
Note: The overall trend remains negative, and any upward moves are considered corrective unless the 1.3456 level is convincingly broken.

NAS100

Trend: Corrective uptrend within an overall bearish trend
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 25,500.25
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 25,546.75
Targets: 25,650.47 then 25,773.75
Alternative Scenario : Sell on a breakdown below 25,389.75
Targets: 25,285.00 then 25,177.00
Note: The current rebound follows a sharp decline, and the price remains below major moving averages. A breakout above 25,546 is required for the corrective move to sustain momentum.

Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

From the United States:
The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) | 18:00

Fundamental Analysis

The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy

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The U.S. Dollar Index climbed above the 98.5 mark on Monday, reaching a two-week high, as investors recalibrated risk assessments amid evolving geopolitical dynamics following U.S. military action in Venezuela. The advance also reflects cautious positioning ahead of a busy U.S. economic calendar, with upcoming data releases expected to carry significant implications for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory.
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Over the weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that Washington would temporarily assume “administrative control” of the Venezuelan government following a large-scale military operation that, according to reports, led to the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro.
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These developments have heightened geopolitical uncertainty, although financial markets have, thus far, exhibited a relatively measured response.

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Investor attention this week is firmly centered on a series of high-impact U.S. economic indicators, particularly: The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), ADP private-sector employment figures, December’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, unemployment rate, and remarks from several Federal Reserve officials
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These releases are being closely monitored for clearer signals regarding the timing and magnitude of potential U.S. interest rate cuts.
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Markets are currently pricing in two interest rate reductions in 2026, while the Federal Reserve’s official guidance continues to point to only one cut, maintaining a divergence between market expectations and policymakers’ projections.
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In addition, investors are awaiting President Trump’s announcement of the next Federal Reserve Chair later this month, amid speculation that the nominee may favor a more accommodative monetary policy stance, in line with the administration’s calls for lower borrowing costs.

Gold & Silver

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Gold extended its strong rally on Monday, gaining more than 1% to trade above $4,380 per ounce, supported by increased safe-haven demand following heightened geopolitical developments in Venezuela.
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This performance builds on the exceptional momentum in precious metals throughout 2025, during which gold recorded its strongest annual gains since 1979, driven by several key factors, including:

Escalating geopolitical risks

U.S. monetary policy easing

Robust purchases by central banks

Sustained inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs)
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The continued strength in gold prices underscores investors’ preference for defensive assets at the start of a year widely expected to be marked by elevated political and economic uncertainty.

Oil

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Oil prices declined despite the escalation of U.S. military action in Venezuela, with Brent crude trading near $60 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovering around $56 per barrel.
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Markets are assessing the potential impact on regional supply, particularly given that Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves. However, many analysts argue that any near-term disruption may be limited, as Venezuela’s current production remains below 1 million barrels per day, accounting for less than 1% of global output.
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Conversely, some analysts caution that oil prices could face upward pressure later in the year should U.S. pressure expand to include other geopolitical adversaries, such as Iran, potentially tightening global supply conditions.
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In a notable development, reports indicate that the White House is encouraging U.S. energy companies to participate in the rehabilitation of Venezuela’s oil sector, particularly if they seek compensation for assets that were expropriated approximately two decades ago.

Bitcoin:

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Bitcoin recorded a robust advance, clearing the $91,200 threshold, as improving technical indicators signaled a strengthening bullish trend.
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Current price dynamics suggest continued upside potential, with the $93,000 level identified as a key near-term technical resistance and prospective target.
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The renewed strength in Bitcoin is supported by a gradual normalization of market liquidity at the start of the year, alongside sustained institutional and retail interest in digital assets as a portfolio diversification tool amid accommodative financial conditions and heightened geopolitical uncertainty.