enDaily Analysis 05/05/2025
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The US dollar index fell below 100 on Monday, giving up last week’s gains as investors sought more clarity on US-China trade relations.
Gold rises amid uncertainty over US-China talks
US President Donald Trump said on Sunday he believes China wants to reach an agreement, although he did not provide any details or a timeline.
Last week, Beijing said it was currently evaluating proposals made by the United States to initiate trade talks, but stressed that any negotiations would require the fulfillment of certain preconditions.
In addition, the US dollar weakened, making gold more attractive to buyers holding other currencies.
Meanwhile, investors are now turning to the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting later this week, where the central bank is widely expected to maintain interest rates, despite renewed calls from President Trump for a rate cut.
Oil prices fell
after OPEC+ confirmed an increase in production, with Brent crude trading at $59.00 and West Texas Intermediate at $55.00.
OPEC+ is set to increase oil production for the second consecutive month, increasing output in June by 411,000 barrels per day.
This could bring up to 2.2 million barrels per day back onto the market by November, as group leader Saudi Arabia seeks to punish some other members who have exceeded their production quotas.
On the geopolitical front, tensions in the Middle East escalated after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to respond to Iran after the Tehran-backed Houthi group fired a missile that landed near Israel’s main airport.
In response, Iranian Defense Minister Aziz Nasserzadeh warned on Sunday that Tehran would respond if attacked by the United States or Israel.
Bitcoin price is rising again above $94,000. Bitcoin is showing positive signs and may target a break above the resistance level at $95,500.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3258.90
First scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 3265.08, targeting 3274.11 and 3282.28.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold after breaking and holding below 3249.75, targeting 3240.31 and then 3231.21.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $55.82 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a breakout and hold steady with a candle closing above $56.05, targeting $56.41 and then $56.76.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil after breaking the $55.50 level, targeting $55.14 and then $54.71.
Comment: Trading below the resistance and moving averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.13437
Scenario 1: Buy EUR/USD after breaking 1.13554, targeting 1.13815 and then 1.14022.
Alternative scenario: Sell EUR/USD after a breakout and hold steady with a candle close below 1.13132, targeting 1.12957 and then 1.12756.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.33004
Scenario 1: Buy GBP/USD with a break and hold above 1.33077, targeting 1.33253 and then 1.33452.
Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD after breaking and closing below 1.32785, targeting 1.32586 and then 1.32397.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 20049
Scenario 1: Buy the Nasdaq after a breakout and hold steady with a close above 20121, targeting 20240 and then 20348.
Alternative scenario: Sell the Nasdaq after a break and close below 19964, targeting 19859 and then 19751.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
From the United States of America, the Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (April) 16:45
From the United States of America, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (April) 17:00
Fundamental Analysis
The US dollar index fell below 100 on Monday, giving up last week’s gains as investors sought more clarity on US-China trade relations.
US President Donald Trump confirmed on Sunday that he believes China is interested in reaching an agreement, but did not provide any details or a timeline.
Last week, Beijing indicated it might consider initiating trade talks, though it emphasized that the United States must first remove all unilateral tariffs as a sign of good faith.
Investors’ focus also shifted to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting, where the central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged amid ongoing trade uncertainty.
A stronger-than-expected April jobs report reduced the likelihood of an interest rate cut in June, boosting expectations of a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve.
Markets now price in a 37% chance of a rate cut in June, down sharply from 64% the previous month.
Gold rose above $3,260 an ounce on Monday, as ongoing uncertainty surrounding US-China trade talks supported demand for safe-haven assets.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures fell more than 3% to around $56.1 a barrel on Monday after OPEC+ agreed to increase production, raising concerns about a global supply glut.
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