Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic Insights

 

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish with a tendency to correct

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: 3,370.39

First scenario (buy): Break and hold above 3,379.89 Targets: 3,388.92 then 3,397.09

Alternative scenario (sell): Break and hold below 3,364.56 Targets: 3,355.12 then 3,346.02

Comment: An attempt to rebound from an uptrend after a downward correction, the next move depends on breaking the current range.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General direction: Horizontal

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: 65.69

First scenario (buy): Breaking and consolidation with a candle closing above 66.16. Targets: 66.42 then 66.77.

Alternative scenario (sell): Breaking the 65.16 level, targets: 64.80 then 64.37

Comment: Price is consolidating in a sideways range with strong resistance from the averages; a breakout or breakdown will determine the next trend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bearish in the short term

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: 1.15487

First scenario (buy): Breaking 1.15702 targets: 1.15963 then 1.16170

Alternative scenario (sell): Break and hold with a candle close below 1.15280. Targets: 1.15105 then 1.14904.

Comment: Selling pressure will continue as long as the price remains below the resistance at 1.157.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: 1.32812

First scenario (buy): Break and hold above 1.32869 Targets: 1.33113 then 1.33312

Alternative scenario (sell): Break and hold below 1.32731 Targets: 1.32447 then 1.32257

Comment: Movements between critical averages may lead to a decisive breakout or breakout during the next session.

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NAS100

 

General trend: Upward in the short term

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: 23,363.00

First scenario (buy): Break and hold above 23,430.50 Targets: 23,550.00 then 23,657.50

Alternative scenario (sell): Break and hold below 23,273.50 Targets: 23,168.75 then 23,060.75

Comment: The break of the recent moving averages is positive, but the nearby resistance at 23,430 represents the most important challenge.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

Services PMI (July) – 16:45

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (July) – 17:00

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The US dollar index held steady at 98.7 on Tuesday, with market activity subdued as investors awaited further signals on the direction of monetary policy amid escalating trade tensions.

Following last Friday’s weak jobs report, markets are pricing in a 94.4% chance of a rate cut at the next Fed meeting. These expectations were heightened by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly’s assertion that the time for a rate cut is “approaching.”

On the other hand, the resignation of Fed Governor Adriana Kogler has raised new concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, especially given Trump’s intention to appoint figures more aligned with his vision for lowering interest rates.

In global markets, gold prices rose to $3,380 per ounce, marking a fourth session of gains, supported by safe-haven demand and expectations of low interest rates.

Meanwhile, oil prices stabilized after a wave of losses, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude trading around $66.30, pressured by OPEC+’s decision to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day for September, despite continued risks to Russian supplies.

This move comes at a time of escalating trade tensions, with Trump threatening to raise tariffs on India over its continued imports of Russian oil, while the European Union temporarily suspended retaliatory tariffs to allow room for negotiations.

Bitcoin has shown some recovery from the $112,000 level and is currently trading near $115,000. A break above $115,500 could trigger renewed upward momentum.