enDaily Analysis 06/05/2025
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index rose to nearly 100 on Tuesday, breaking a two-day decline as investors continued to grapple with trade-related uncertainty.
Gold rises to its highest level in more than a week
Trump opened a new front in his trade war on Sunday, saying films produced outside the United States would face a 100% tariff.
He said on Monday that he plans to unveil tariffs on medicines within the next two weeks.
Meanwhile, investors are now awaiting the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision and speeches from several Fed officials this week.
The US central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, despite continued pressure from President Trump, who urged Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to cut rates.
Oil rises 1% as prices fall and buying is stimulated; oversupply concerns weigh on prices,
with Brent crude trading at $59.00 and WTI at $55.00.
Brent and West Texas Intermediate rose 1.5% after hitting four-year lows in the previous session.
Both benchmark crudes settled at their lowest levels since February 2021 on Monday, driven by OPEC+’s decision over the weekend to accelerate oil production increases for the second consecutive month.
“The slight rebound in oil prices today appears to be driven more by technical factors than fundamentals,” said IG Market Strategist Yip Junrong. “Ongoing challenges, including the pivot in OPEC+ production strategy, demand uncertainty amid US tariff risks, and lowered price forecasts, continue to weigh on overall price action.”
Fueled by expectations that production will exceed consumption, oil has lost more than 10% in six consecutive sessions and has fallen more than 20% since April, when tariff shocks imposed by US President Donald Trump increased bets on a global economic slowdown.
The return of Chinese market participants after a five-day public holiday since May 1 supported prices on Tuesday.
“China also reopened today, and as the largest importer, buyers are likely to secure oil at its current low levels,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Philip Nova.
It also presented data showing a rebound in growth in the services sector in the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer, with increased orders.
Bitcoin price began a downward correction below $96,500. Bitcoin is now trading below $95,000 and is struggling to start a new upward trend.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3365.07
First scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 3369.74, targeting 3378.77 and 3386.94.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold after breaking and holding below 3354.42, targeting 3344.97 and then 3335.88.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $57.98 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a breakout and hold steady with a candle closing above $58.08, targeting $58.44 and then $58.79.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil after breaking the $57.53 level, targeting $57.17 and then $56.74.
Comment: Trading below the resistance and moving averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.13193
First scenario: Buy the EUR/USD after breaking 1.13408, targeting 1.13669 and then 1.13876.
Alternative scenario: Sell EUR/USD after a breakout and hold steady with a candle close below 1.12985, targeting 1.12811 and then 1.12609.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.32892
Scenario 1: Buy GBP/USD with a break and hold above 1.33077, targeting 1.33253 and then 1.33452.
Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD after breaking and closing below 1.32785, targeting 1.32586 and then 1.32397.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 19943
Scenario 1: Buy the Nasdaq after a breakout and hold steady with a close above 20038, targeting 20158 and then 20265.
Alternative scenario: Sell the Nasdaq after a break and close below 19,881, targeting 19,777 and then 19,669.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-No data today
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index rose to nearly 100 on Tuesday, breaking a two-day decline as investors continued to grapple with trade-related uncertainty.
The US dollar also recovered against most Asian currencies, following a wave of selling pressure in recent sessions.
The Taiwanese dollar and Malaysian ringgit led recent gains in the region, with the Taiwanese currency hitting a three-year high on Monday.
The rise has fueled speculation that the currency’s appreciation may be part of a broader effort to facilitate trade negotiations with the United States. Investors’ attention now turns to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision.
While the Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady, markets will closely monitor Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks for any clues about future policy shifts, especially given rising tensions over tariffs and political pressure from President Trump to cut interest rates.
Gold rose more than 1% to above $3,370 an ounce on Tuesday, its highest level in more than a week, as President Donald Trump’s renewed threat of tariffs spurred demand for safe-haven assets.
Oil prices rose more than 1% on Tuesday, with a technical rebound and dip buying following a decline in the previous session due to OPEC+’s decision to accelerate production increases, despite lingering concerns about the outlook for a market surplus.
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