Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic Insights

 

The US dollar stabilizes near 98.8 as investors await the Fed’s direction.

Gold maintains gains, supported by the possibility of a rate cut and political tensions.

Oil rises after four sessions of decline, supported by lower inventories and expectations of lower Russian supplies.

Trump threatens India with new tariffs within 24 hours

Bitcoin struggles to hold above $116,200 amid weakening upward momentum

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Sideways
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3,375.18
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and hold above 3,386.48, targeting 3,395.51 and then 3,403.67
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and hold below 3,371.15, targeting 3,361.71 and then 3,352.61
Comment: The price fluctuates near the middle of the channel, and a break on one of the ends directs the next movement

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Sideways
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 64.81
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and hold with a candle closing above 65.32, targeting 65.54 and then 65.88
Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break of 64.28, targeting 63.91 and then 63.48
Comment: The price is trying to break out of a strong support area, and confirmation of the break may determine the next trend

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Sideways
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.15667
Scenario 1: Buy EUR/USD after breaking 1.15892, targeting 1.16153 and then 1.16360
Alternative scenario: Sell EUR/USD after breaking and consolidating by closing a candle below 1.15593, targeting 1.15295 and then 1.15093
Comment: The pair is moving within a narrow range, and the outlook remains neutral until the break is confirmed

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: 1.32812

First scenario (buy): Break and hold above 1.32869 Targets: 1.33113 then 1.33312

Alternative scenario (sell): Break and hold below 1.32731 Targets: 1.32447 then 1.32257

Comment: Movements between critical averages may lead to a decisive breakout or breakout during the next session.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Sideways bullish
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 23,154.75
Scenario 1: Buy the Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 23,192.00, targeting 23,311.50 and then 23,419.00
Alternative scenario: Sell the Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close below 23,035.00, targeting 22,930.25 and then 22,822.25
Comment: The index is recovering after a sharp decline, and holding above the averages enhances the chances of an upside

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

Crude Oil Inventory – 17:30 Mecca Time

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The US Dollar Index held steady at 98.8 on Wednesday, continuing its sideways trading throughout the week amid mixed economic data and renewed concerns about escalating trade tensions.

Market confidence in the strength of the US economy declined after the ISM services index fell below expectations, reflecting slowing growth and employment and rising costs, alongside previous data on weak labor markets and consumer spending.

These signals have increased the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 90% in September, amid mounting political pressure, especially after the resignation of Federal Reserve Board member Kogler, which opens the way for Trump to appoint a figure supportive of his policies.

On the gold front, the precious metal maintained its trading near $3,375 per ounce, benefiting from a decline in dollar yields and increased demand for safe havens amid uncertainty surrounding monetary and trade policy.

In oil markets, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose above $65 a barrel, supported by reports from the American Petroleum Institute showing a 4.2 million barrel drop in inventories, exceeding expectations.

However, gains remain limited due to OPEC+’s decision to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day for September, re-establishing pressure on the market balance, especially with US threats to India regarding Russian oil.

Bitcoin is currently trading below $116,200 and is struggling to break this level, with a potential decline towards $112,500 if no new buying momentum emerges in the coming hours.