enDaily Analysis 07/05/2025
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The US dollar index rose above 99.5 on Wednesday, snapping a three-day losing streak following reports that US Treasury Secretary Scott Morrison and Trade Representative Jameson Greer will meet with their Chinese counterparts in Switzerland this week to discuss economic and trade issues.
Gold falls due to US-China trade talks
The meeting represents a major step toward reaching agreements between Washington and Beijing to ease the ongoing trade war, which intensified last month when President Trump raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 145% while reducing them for most other US trading partners.
China responded by imposing heavy tariffs on its imports.
Meanwhile, investors are closely watching the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision later today and remarks from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell for clues on the direction of interest rates.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, despite growing political pressure to ease monetary policy.
Oil rises as the market awaits US-China trade talks and lower US production, with Brent crude trading at $62.00 and WTI at $59.00.
Oil prices recently fell to their lowest levels in four years after OPEC+ decided to accelerate production increases, raising concerns about a supply glut at a time when US tariffs have heightened concerns about demand.
“News that the US and China will begin trade talks this week sent Brent crude higher, extending the rally in oil prices,” ING commodity strategists said on Wednesday.
ING Bank added: “While negotiations should help improve sentiment in the oil market, we will need to see significant progress on tariff reductions to improve the demand outlook.”
Bitcoin price began a downward correction and tested the $94,000 level. Bitcoin price is rising again, and it may target the $98,000 resistance level.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3391.40
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a breakout and stability above 3396.20, targeting 3405.23 and 3413.40.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and hold below 3380.87, targeting 3371.43 and then 3362.34.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $59.55 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a breakout and hold steady with a candle closing above $59.72, targeting $60.08 and then $60.43.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil after breaking the $59.17 level, targeting $58.81 and then $58.38.
Comment: Trading below the resistance and moving averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.13707
First scenario: Buy the EUR/USD after breaking 1.13807, targeting 1.14068 and then 1.14274.
Alternative scenario: Sell EUR/USD after a breakout and hold steady with a candle close below 1.13396, targeting 1.13210 and then 1.13008.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.33637
Scenario 1: Buy GBP/USD with a break and stability above 1.33696, targeting 1.33872 and then 1.34071.
Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD after breaking and closing below 1.33404, targeting 1.33205 and then 1.33016.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 19966
Scenario 1: Buy the Nasdaq after a breakout and hold steady with a close above 20038, targeting 20158 and then 20265.
Alternative scenario: Sell the Nasdaq after a break and close below 19,881, targeting 19,777 and then 19,669.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
US crude oil inventories 17:30
From the United States of America, the Federal Open Market Committee report, 21:00
US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision 21:00
Federal Reserve Press Conference 21:30
Fundamental Analysis
The US dollar index rose above 99.5 on Wednesday, snapping a three-day losing streak following reports that US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant and Trade Representative Jameson Greer will meet with their Chinese counterparts this week in Switzerland to discuss economic and trade issues.
This has raised optimism about the possibility of starting trade negotiations to reduce the exorbitant tariffs imposed by the two countries.
Investors are also preparing for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming monetary policy decision, which is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged.
Traders will closely watch Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments for insights on the path of interest rates amid growing political pressure to ease policy.
However, concerns that Trump’s tariffs could push inflation higher have cast a shadow over the outlook.
The dollar rose against major currencies, recording its largest gains against the euro, yen, and South Korean won.
Gold fell to around $3,380 an ounce on Wednesday, ending a two-day rally following reports that U.S. and Chinese officials are scheduled to meet this week, dampening demand for safe-haven assets.
Oil prices rose on Wednesday, remaining above four-year lows, as investors focused on US-China trade talks and signs of declining US production.
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