enDaily Analysis 07/08/2025
Latest Economic Insights
The dollar stabilizes below 98.5 amid strong bets on a rate cut and the possibility of a change in Fed leadership.
Gold heads towards $3,380, supported by trade tensions and more accommodative monetary policies.
Trump imposes 100% tariffs on semiconductors and 25-50% tariffs on Indian and Brazilian goods.
Aramco raises oil prices to Asia due to strong demand and tight supplies despite OPEC+ production increases.
Bitcoin is trying to regain momentum above $114,200 after a sharp decline.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General direction: Horizontal
Time interval: 30 minutes
Current price: 3,386.02
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a breakout and stability above 3,389.79, targeting 3,398.82 and then 3,406.99.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on a break and hold below 3,377.26, targeting 3,374.46 and then 3,372.53.
Comment: Fluctuation between resistance and support levels, and a break of one of the two extremes suggests a strong move.
CRUDE OIL
General trend: bearish
Time interval: 30 minutes
Current price: 64.02
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and hold above 64.71, targeting 64.94 and then 65.29.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil after breaking 63.68, targeting 63.32 and then 62.89.
Comment: Attempts to rise after a strong downtrend, but no confirmation until 64.71 is breached.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: 30 minutes
Current price: 1.16780
Scenario 1: Buy EUR/USD with a break and hold above 1.16886, targeting 1.17147 and then 1.17353.
Alternative scenario: Sell on a break of 1.16463, targeting 1.16289 and then 1.16114
Comment: The buying momentum continues unless the first support is broken.
GBPUSD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: 30 minutes
Current price: 1.33767
Scenario 1: Buy GBP/USD with a break and hold above 1.33864, targeting 1.34041 and then 1.34239.
Alternative scenario: Sell on a break of 1.33573, targeting 1.33374 and then 1.33184
Comment: The upward trend continues but faces crucial resistance at 1.33864.
NAS100
General trend: Upward
Time interval: 30 minutes
Current price: 23,485.75
Scenario 1: Buy the Nasdaq on a breakout and hold above 23,555.50, targeting 23,674.75 and then 23,782.50.
Alternative scenario: Sell on a break of 23,398.50, targeting 23,293.75 and then 23,205.26
Comment: The bullish momentum is intact, with the 23,555.50 level being monitored as key resistance.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
Trade Balance (July) – 06:06
Foreign Exchange Reserves (July) – 11:00
🇬🇧 From the United Kingdom:
Bank of England Interest Rate Decision – 14:00
Bank of England Inflation Message – 2:30 PM
🇺🇸 From the United States:
Unemployment claims – 3:30 PM
President Trump’s Speech – 23:00
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet – 23:30
Fundamental Analysis
The US dollar index held below 98.5 on Thursday after a sharp decline on Wednesday, as investors repriced their expectations for Federal Reserve policy amid weak economic data and speculation of a possible leadership change.
The market is monitoring Trump’s nomination of a replacement for former Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler, along with a list of four potential candidates to succeed Jerome Powell, reopening the issue of Fed independence to executive policy pressure.
Gold rose to nearly $3,380 an ounce, recovering from the previous session’s losses as bets on interest rate cuts in September and December returned. New US tariffs also boosted gold’s appeal as a safe haven.
In the energy sector, Aramco announced a $1 per barrel increase in oil prices for Asia, despite OPEC+’s agreement to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. This increase is a result of strong Asian demand and supply shortages.
Brent crude traded at $67.00, and WTI at $64.00, with limited support from higher prices for Asian buyers and lower prices for European buyers.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $114,200 after attempting to recover from previous losses, and is expected to breach $115,500 to confirm renewed upward momentum.
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