enDaily Analysis 07/10/2025
Latest Economic Insights
Top headlines
The dollar rises to 98.2 as the US government shutdown enters its seventh day and political deadlock in Congress continues.
Gold stabilizes near $3,960 an ounce, near a record high, supported by uncertainty and expectations of a rate cut.
Oil holds gains after modest OPEC+ increases and continued concerns about Russian supply disruptions.
Bitcoin continues its climb above $126,000 in an attempt to break new highs in the short term.
Political unrest in France and Japan is adding pressure on the euro and yen and supporting the dollar’s strength.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward within a narrow price channel
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3,964
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a breakout and stability above 3,976, targeting 3,985 and then 3,993.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on a break and hold below 3,960, targeting 3,951 and then 3,942.
Comment: Gold continues to move in a stable upward range, with current levels representing a consolidation phase before attempting to break the upper channel towards 3,985.
CRUDE OIL
General trend: sideways, bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 61.66
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a breakout and stability above 61.85, targeting 62.20 and then 62.55.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and hold below 61.23, targeting 60.94 and then 60.58.
Comment: Oil is trading within a horizontal range between 61.20 and 61.85, and a breakout of either level will clearly determine the direction of the next session.
EURUSD
General trend: bearish in the short term
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.1691
Scenario 1: Sell the euro after a break and stability below 1.1677, targeting 1.1660 and then 1.1639.
Alternative scenario: Buy the euro with a breakout and hold above 1.1720, targeting 1.1745 and then 1.1766.
Comment: The pair remains under clear selling pressure, and the 1.1720 resistance represents a key barrier to any upward rebound attempt.
GBPUSD
General trend: bearish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.3462
Scenario 1: Sell the pound after breaking and holding below 1.3455, targeting 1.3433 and then 1.3414.
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound with a breakout and hold above 1.3482, targeting 1.3499 and then 1.3519.
Comment: The pound faces strong resistance at 1.3480, and a failed breakout could lead to a limited downside correction.
NAS100
General trend: stable bullish after a limited correction
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 25,179
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a breakout and hold above 25,221, targeting 25,341 and then 25,448.
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq on break and hold below 25,064, targeting 24,960 and then 24,851
Comment: The index is gradually regaining upward momentum, and any close above 25,220 will confirm the continuation of the positive trend towards 25,340.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
There are no major economic data releases scheduled for today due to the ongoing government shutdown in the United States.
Fundamental Analysis
The US dollar index rose to around 98.2 on Tuesday, maintaining its gains for the second consecutive day, as the federal government shutdown continued for a seventh day amid US lawmakers’ failure to reach a funding agreement.
This shutdown has partially paralyzed federal institutions and disrupted the release of vital economic data, making investors increasingly reliant on political statements and statements from Federal Reserve officials to guide their investment decisions.
Despite the stalemate, markets are almost fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut this month, with a high probability of a second cut in December, based on indicators of labor market weakness and recent spending data.
Traders are awaiting remarks by Stephen Miller tomorrow and Jerome Powell the day after for clearer signals on the path of monetary policy going forward.
On the international political front, the dollar received additional support from the weakness of the euro and yen following the resignation of the French government and the subsequent domestic turmoil. Japan’s ruling party also elected a new leader with a fiscally easing agenda, increasing pressure on the yen and pushing investors toward the US currency as a relative safe haven.
In commodity markets, gold prices stabilized around $3,960 per ounce, close to a record high, amid continued strong demand for safe-haven assets. The yellow metal received support from global political tensions and expectations of a US interest rate cut, in addition to central bank purchases and exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows.
Oil maintained its gains, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading at $61.70 and Brent at $65, after OPEC+ approved a modest production increase of only 137,000 barrels per day for November. However, the Ukrainian attack on Russia’s Kirishi refinery caused a temporary supply cut, providing limited support to prices. However, expectations of weak demand in the fourth quarter continue to weigh on the market.
In cryptocurrency markets, Bitcoin continued its climb to $126,000, driven by widespread optimism about the return of major institutions to the market, with trading volumes rising significantly. Investors are monitoring the $127,500-$128,000 resistance zone as a crucial level that could determine the next trend.
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