Daily Market Analysis

  

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines:

The U.S. dollar holds on to its gains near 98.7 following mixed U.S. economic data.

Gold trims its losses but remains under pressure amid dollar strength and ahead of the upcoming jobs report.

Oil rebounds after two consecutive days of decline, supported by a drawdown in U.S. crude inventories.

Bitcoin enters a corrective phase from its $94,500 peak, targeting lower support levels.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

Trend: Corrective bullish move within an ascending channel
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 4,432.21
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 4,456.10
Targets: 4,468.49 followed by 4,490.26
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 4,415.05
Targets: 4,400.66 followed by 4,384.07
Note: Gold has entered a deeper correction within the ascending channel. As long as prices remain above the 4,415 support level, the bullish scenario remains intact.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Bearish
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 56.124
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 56.350
Targets: 56.731 followed by 57.078
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 55.872
Targets: 55.513 followed by 55.083
Note: Oil is trading within a clearly defined downtrend, and any rebound is likely to remain weak unless it surpasses 56.35.

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EURUSD

 

Trend: Bearish
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.16789
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.16891
Targets: 1.17164 followed by 1.17371
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.16633
Targets: 1.16458 followed by 1.16257
Note: The downtrend remains intact, with price trading below the moving averages. A break below 1.16633 would reinforce the potential for further downside continuation.

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: Bearish
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.34504
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.34722
Targets: 1.34888 followed by 1.35097
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.34330
Targets: 1.34231 followed by 1.34042
Note: The pair remains under selling pressure after breaking below the moving averages, and any upward move toward 1.347 should be considered merely corrective.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Corrective bearish after failing to sustain higher highs
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 25,684.50
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 25,789.25
Targets: 25,911.75 followed by 26,019.50
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 25,658.37
Targets: 25,530.75 followed by 25,422.50
Note: The price failed to hold above 25,820 and has come under clear selling pressure. Any upward move should be considered corrective unless 25,789 is reclaimed with a decisive close.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From the United States:

Initial Jobless Claims | 16:30

Fundamental Analysis

The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy

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The U.S. Dollar Index hovered around 98.7 on Thursday, consolidating after a string of consecutive gains, as investors recalibrated their outlook in response to a mixed slate of U.S. economic indicators and their potential ramifications for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path.
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Recent releases showed that U.S. job openings fell more sharply than anticipated in November, pointing to a moderation in labor demand, while December private-sector payroll growth undershot expectations, amplifying concerns over a gradual cooling in labor market conditions.
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Offsetting these signals, Institute for Supply Management (ISM) data indicated an unexpected acceleration in services sector activity, providing a counterbalance to labor market softness and prompting market participants to remain cautious and data-dependent rather than adopting firm directional positions.

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Investors’ focus has now shifted toward weekly initial jobless claims and Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for December, as markets seek clearer signals on the underlying strength of the labor market and the future direction of monetary policy.
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Market pricing currently indicates nearly a 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting, while expectations continue to reflect multiple potential rate cuts later in the year.
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In the currency space, the U.S. dollar has posted more pronounced gains against the euro this week, driven by signs of easing inflationary pressures in Europe, which have widened the divergence in monetary policy expectations between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.

Gold & Silver

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Gold prices declined to around $4,440 per ounce on Thursday, extending losses from the previous session, as a stronger U.S. dollar and investor caution ahead of key U.S. labor market data weighed on sentiment.
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Despite the pullback, gold’s underlying bullish fundamentals remain intact, supported by:

Elevated geopolitical uncertainty

Expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts later this year

Sustained official-sector demand from central banks
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In this context, the People’s Bank of China announced that it extended its gold purchases for a 14th consecutive month in December, reinforcing the metal’s positive long-term outlook despite ongoing short-term headwinds.

Oil

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Oil prices rebounded after two consecutive sessions of declines, with Brent crude trading near $60 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovering around $56 per barrel.
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The primary support came from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, which showed a 3.8 million-barrel draw in U.S. crude oil inventories last week, defying expectations for a build.
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However, despite the headline draw, the report also indicated:

An increase in inventories at the Cushing delivery hub

Larger-than-expected builds in gasoline and distillate stockpiles, which limited the upside in prices.

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From a geopolitical perspective, Washington outlined plans to exercise extended oversight over Venezuelan crude oil exports, encompassing the release of stored inventories and the commercialization of future output under direct supervision, in addition to the confiscation of further oil tankers associated with Venezuela.
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U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that Venezuela is expected to deliver between 30 and 50 million barrels of crude oil to the United States, a development that market participants view as increasing near-term supply in the U.S. market.
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Conversely, softer U.S. labor market indicators have strengthened expectations of monetary policy easing, which has offered some support to the energy demand outlook by improving broader macroeconomic and financial conditions.

Bitcoin:

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Bitcoin has entered a downward corrective phase from the $94,500 level, following a strong rally over recent days.
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The cryptocurrency is currently facing clear technical pressure, as it:

Tests intermediate support zones

May extend its pullback toward the key support area near $89,000 should negative momentum persist
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The current price action remains within the bounds of a healthy correction, provided Bitcoin continues to trade above its major support levels, while markets await new catalysts that could reignite bullish momentum in the period ahead.