Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines

The dollar holds above 97.8 ahead of US inflation data (PPI Wednesday – CPI Thursday).

Gold holds its record high near $3,590, supported by interest rate cut expectations and concerns about Federal Reserve independence.

US jobs data showed severe weakness: only 22,000 jobs were added in August, compared to expectations of 75,000.

Markets are pricing in a September rate cut by 92%, with the potential for a half-point move if inflation data comes in weak.

The People’s Bank of China increases its gold reserves for the tenth consecutive month.

The Trump administration exempts gold and some metals from tariffs.

Oil rises: Brent at $66 and WTI at $62.1 after OPEC+ announced a modest increase of 137,000 barrels per day starting in October.

Bitcoin stabilizes near $110,000 in a narrow range ahead of next week’s US interest rate decision.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Upward sloping
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3,583.22

Scenario 1: Buy gold with a breakout and stability above 3,590.09, targeting 3,599.12 and then 3,607.28.

Alternative scenario: Sell gold on a break and hold below 3,574.76, targeting 3,565.32 and then 3,556.22.

Comment: Gold is moving between strong support and nearby resistance levels, and a breakout of either could clearly determine the next trend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 63,237

Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and hold above 63.586, targeting 63.946 and then 64.294.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and stability below 62.683, targeting 62.324 and then 61.894.

Comment: Oil is trading in a downtrend near important support areas; a break below would increase selling pressure.

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EURUSD

 

General direction: Horizontal

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.16574

Scenario 1: Buy the euro on a breakout and hold above 1.16808, targeting 1.17070 and then 1.17276.

Alternative scenario: Sell the euro on a break and hold below 1.16386, targeting 1.16212 and then 1.16010.

Comment: The euro is facing key resistance around 1.16700, and a break above it would boost the upside.

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GBPUSD

 

General direction: Horizontal

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.34309

Scenario 1: Buy the pound with a break and hold above 1.34423, targeting 1.34599 and then 1.34798.

Alternative scenario: Sell the pound after breaking and holding below 1.34131, targeting 1.33993 and then 1.33743.

Comment: The pound is fluctuating near a support area, and breaking it will confirm selling pressure.

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NAS100

 

General direction: Horizontal

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 23,473.25

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold above 23,564.25, targeting 23,683.50 and then 23,791.25

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq on breakout and hold below 23,407.25, targeting 23,302.50 and then 23,194.50

Comment: The Nasdaq is moving in a narrow range, and a break of any of the pivot levels will determine the direction of the session.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From Japan: GDP (QoQ) – Q2 – 2:50.

From China: Trade Balance (USD) – August – 6:45.

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index held above 97.8 on Monday, as traders awaited inflation reports this week that will largely determine the path of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Producer price index data is due on Wednesday, followed by consumer price index data on Thursday, both key indicators following Friday’s weak employment data.

The nonfarm payrolls report revealed that only 22,000 jobs were added in August, compared to a revised 79,000 in July and expectations of 75,000, while unemployment rose to its highest level since 2021. These figures strongly supported the trend toward a rate cut, with markets pricing in nearly 92% of a 25 basis point cut this month, with some bets on a larger cut if inflation data comes in below expectations.

Gold stabilized near $3,590 an ounce, benefiting from weak jobs data, President Trump’s political interventions in the Federal Reserve’s operations, and central banks—such as the People’s Bank of China—continuing to build their gold reserves. The Trump administration’s announcement that gold and some other metals would be exempt from tariffs also helped boost market sentiment.

Oil rebounded after three days of declines, with West Texas Intermediate crude climbing to $62.1 a barrel, supported by OPEC+’s decision to increase production by only 137,000 barrels per day starting in October—a slower pace than in previous months. This decision reflects a combination of Saudi Arabia’s desire to regain market share and caution over weak global demand.

Bitcoin remains confined to a narrow range near $110,000 amid thin liquidity and investor caution, as the market awaits the Federal Reserve’s decision next week to determine a clearer direction.