enDaily Analysis 08/10/2025
Latest Economic Insights
Top headlines
The US dollar rose to 99.0, its highest level in two months, as demand for safe havens increased due to the ongoing government shutdown.
Gold surpasses $4,000 per ounce for the first time in history, driven by geopolitical concerns and expectations of a US interest rate cut.
Oil rises to $66 for Brent and $62 for West Texas Intermediate after OPEC+ agrees to a limited production ceiling.
Bitcoin falls to $122,000 after failing to break the $126,200 resistance level.
Markets are awaiting today’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes and US oil inventory data for further economic guidance.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward within an accelerating price channel
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 4,030
First scenario: Buy gold with a breakout and hold above 4,035, targeting 4,043 and then 4,052.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a breakout and hold below 4,020, targeting 4,010 and then 4,001.
Comment: Gold maintains strong upward momentum within a rising channel, with clear support from the moving averages. Any slight pullback is considered a correction before continuing the climb towards 4,050.
CRUDE OIL
General trend: Upward sloping
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 61.99
First scenario: Buy oil with a breakout and stability above 62.35, targeting 62.71 and then 63.06.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a breakout and stability below 61.46, targeting 61.09 and then 60.66.
Commentary: Oil is trading in a horizontal range, but showing strong upward attempts. A close above 62.35 could trigger a new wave toward 63.00.
EURUSD
General trend: clearly bearish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.1610
First scenario: Sell the euro on a breakout and hold below 1.1602, targeting 1.1584 and then 1.1564.
Alternative scenario: Buy the euro on a breakout and hold above 1.1644, targeting 1.1668 and then 1.1675.
Comment: Selling pressure continues on the pair, and the possibility of a retest of the 1.1600 support exists unless 1.1640 is breached again.
GBPUSD
General trend: Down
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.3389
First scenario: Sell the pound with a break and hold below 1.3379, targeting 1.3359 and then 1.3340.
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound with a break and hold above 1.3408, targeting 1.3426 and then 1.3446.
Comment: The pair continues its clear downward trend with strong resistance at 1.3440, and the loss of upward momentum confirms the dominance of sellers.
NAS100
General trend: bearish sideways after losing momentum
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 25,035
Scenario 1: Sell Nasdaq with a break and hold below 25,000, targeting 24,962 and then 24,857.
Alternative Scenario: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold above 25,116, targeting 25,238 and then 25,346.
Comment: The index is trading below its moving averages and showing signs of weakness. A break below the 25,000 level could trigger a further decline towards 24,850.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
US crude oil inventories – 17:30
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes – 22:00
Fundamental Analysis
The US dollar index rose to nearly 99.0 on Wednesday, its highest level in more than two months, as markets remained concerned about the US government shutdown, which entered its second week. Congress again failed to pass a funding agreement, further complicating the economic outlook and increasing demand for defensive assets such as the dollar and gold.
The political deadlock in Washington has delayed the release of key economic data, including the nonfarm payrolls report, leaving investors awaiting monetary policy signals from today’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes. Market expectations indicate the Fed will deliver two additional 25 basis point rate cuts in October and December, while Fed Chairman Jerome Powell continues to advocate for a “cautiously gradual approach” to monetary easing.
Globally, the dollar received additional support after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand surprised markets with a 50 basis point interest rate cut, while the euro and yen also weakened due to ongoing political unrest in France and a shift in leadership in Japan toward a more accommodative approach.
Gold surpassed $4,000 an ounce for the first time in history, supported by strong demand from investors and central banks. This record high comes amid growing fears of a global economic recession and weakening confidence in financial markets, in addition to expectations of an imminent US interest rate cut. Gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have also seen record inflows in recent days.
In contrast, oil prices continued to rise slightly, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude trading around $62 a barrel and Brent at $66. Prices benefited from OPEC+’s decision to set a limited production ceiling of just 137,000 barrels per day, which gave the market a cautious outlook. Despite US inventories rising by 2.78 million barrels last week, risks to Russian supplies due to Ukrainian attacks on refineries contributed to support prices.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, failed to break above $126,200, settling back around $122,000 amid profit-taking after the recent surge. However, the outlook remains optimistic as long as the price remains above the $120,000 support level, which is currently considered a potential rebound zone.
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