Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines

The dollar held steady at 97.4, near its weakest level in seven weeks, as concerns about a slowing labor market mounted.

Gold holds near a record high of $3,640, supported by rate cut bets and increased demand for safe havens.

Markets are pricing in three interest rate cuts this year, including one almost certain to come at next week’s meeting.

All eyes are on US inflation data (PPI Wednesday – CPI Thursday) which will determine the size of the next cut.

Oil continues to gain: Brent at $66 and WTI at $62.4.

Saudi Arabia lowers crude oil prices to Asia for October, indicating weak demand.

Bitcoin sees strong institutional buying: Metaplanet adds 7,791 BTC in 10 weeks, parallel to Convano’s investments.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Up
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3,658.65

Scenario 1: Buy gold with a breakout and stability above 3,663.04, targeting 3,672.07 and then 3,680.24.

Alternative scenario: Sell gold on a break and hold below 3,647.71, targeting 3,638.27 and then 3,629.18

Comment: Gold is moving in a strong ascending channel, and a break above current resistance could push the price to new highs.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: sideways bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 62.352

Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and hold above 62.872, targeting 63.231 and then 63.579.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and hold below 62.231, targeting 61.969 and then 61.609.

Comment: Oil is facing significant local resistance, and a break above it could support continued upward movement.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Up
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.17767

Scenario 1: Buy the euro on a breakout and hold above 1.17932, targeting 1.18193 and then 1.18400.

Alternative scenario: Sell the euro on a break and hold below 1.17510, targeting 1.17335 and then 1.17134.

Comment: The euro continues to rise after breaking previous support levels, and the upward momentum remains dominant.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: Up
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.35777

Scenario 1: Buy the pound with a break and hold above 1.35858, targeting 1.36034 and then 1.36233.

Alternative scenario: Sell the pound after breaking and holding below 1.35566, targeting 1.35367 and then 1.35177.

Comment: The pound is moving strongly towards important resistance areas, and a breakout could open the way for further gains.

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NAS100

 

General trend: Sideways
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 23,820.25

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold above 23,894.75, targeting 24,014.25 and then 24,121.75

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq on break and hold below 23,737.75, targeting 23,633.00 and then 23,525.00

Comment: The Nasdaq is testing important resistance, and a breakout would open the way to all-time highs.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

There is no important news today.

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index remained at 97.4 on Tuesday, near its weakest level in seven weeks, amid pressure stemming from the weakness in the US labor market. The latest nonfarm payrolls report revealed a sharp slowdown, while investors await revisions to employment data for the period April 2024 to March 2025, which could show a reduction of up to 800,000 jobs—which could increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to act quickly.

Markets are now pricing in an 89% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting, with some pricing in a larger 50 basis point cut if inflation data is weak. Traders are awaiting the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday this week to determine the Fed’s next move.

Gold stabilized near $3,640 an ounce, benefiting from growing expectations of a rate cut, as well as uncertainty surrounding US tariffs and geopolitical tensions. So far this year, the yellow metal has risen 39%, supported by central bank buying and a weaker dollar.

In energy markets, West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose to $62.40, supported by a limited OPEC+ production increase of only 137,000 barrels per day starting in October, along with concerns about additional US sanctions on Russian oil following the intensified airstrikes on Ukraine. However, Saudi Arabia’s move to cut its crude selling prices to Asia capped gains, indicating a slowdown in regional demand.

In cryptocurrencies, Japanese institutions continued to increase their holdings, with Metaplanet and Convano announcing new purchases, reflecting growing institutional confidence in Bitcoin despite the current volatility around $110,000.