enDaily Analysis 09/10/2025
Latest Economic Insights
Top headlines
The dollar held near a two-month high of 98.8, supported by weakness in major global currencies.
Gold falls to $4,020 an ounce after a record-breaking rally stalls amid potential profit-taking.
Oil falls to $65 for Brent and $62 for West Texas Intermediate following the announcement of the first phase of the peace agreement between Israel and Hamas.
Bitcoin is trading near $122,200 after a technical correction below the $125,000 pivot level.
Markets are awaiting Jerome Powell’s speech and today’s unemployment claims report to assess the future path of interest rates.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward after a rebound from minor support
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 4,033
First scenario: Buy gold with a breakout and hold above 4,037, targeting 4,046 and then 4,054.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a breakout and hold below 4,021, targeting 4,012 and then 4,003.
Comment: Gold rebounded from a strong support area at 4,012 to continue rising within the ascending channel, and a break above 4,037 would confirm continued positive momentum towards 4,050.
CRUDE OIL
General trend: Sideways, slightly bearish.
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes).
Current price: 61.75.
First scenario: Buy oil with a breakout and hold above 61.91, targeting 62.35 and then 62.71.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a breakout and hold below 61.45, targeting 61.09 and then 60.66.
Comment: Oil is moving within a narrow range between 61.40 and 61.90, with upward attempts facing strong resistance at the upper end of the range.
EURUSD
General trend: temporary upward rebound within a downward trend
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.1644
Scenario 1: Buy the euro on a breakout and hold above 1.1660, targeting 1.1686 and then 1.1707.
Alternative scenario: Sell the euro on a breakout and hold below 1.1630, targeting 1.1610 and then 1.1580.
Comment: The pair is showing an upward correction after strong selling pressure, but the moving averages still support the downward trend in the short term.
GBPUSD
General trend: Sideways trending upwards after testing minor support
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.3415
First scenario: Buy the pound with a breakout and hold above 1.3425, targeting 1.3442 and then 1.3462.
Alternative scenario: Sell the pound with a breakout and hold below 1.3396, targeting 1.3376 and then 1.3357.
Comment: The pound is trying to consolidate above 1.3400 after a strong pullback, and a break above 1.3425 could restore confidence to buyers.
NAS100
General trend: Upward after breaking strong resistance.
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes).
Current price: 25,334.
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a breakout and hold above 25,409, targeting 25,528 and then 25,636.
Alternative Scenario: Sell Nasdaq with a breakout and hold below 25,252, targeting 25,147 and then 25,039.
Comment: The index maintains a clear bullish structure, and a break of 25,409 will reinforce the move towards new highs in today’s session.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s Speech – 3:30 PM
Fundamental Analysis
The US dollar index retreated slightly to 98.8 on Thursday, but remained close to its two-month high reached on Wednesday, supported by a decline in major global currencies, especially the euro and yen.
The dollar rose more than 3% against the Japanese yen this week after conservative candidate Sanae Takaichi won the leadership race for Japan’s ruling party, reinforcing expectations of expansionary fiscal policies and continued accommodative monetary policy from the Bank of Japan.
In Europe, pressure on the single currency increased after the surprise resignation of French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, which raised political uncertainty in the European Union’s second-largest economy.
On the US side, the federal government shutdown continues to cast a shadow over markets as it enters its second week, delaying the release of key economic data and disrupting several government institutions. This has increased demand for defensive assets such as the dollar and gold.
The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting released Wednesday evening revealed a division among central bank members regarding the pace of the next interest rate cut, with some indicating the need for further cuts to support employment, while others called for caution to assess the impact of the recent easing. Markets are awaiting Jerome Powell’s speech today, which could provide crucial clues on the direction of monetary policy ahead of the October meeting.
In metals markets, gold retreated to $4,020 per ounce after hitting historic highs above $4,000 in previous sessions. The decline was a result of natural profit-taking following the significant rally, along with easing geopolitical concerns following the announcement of the first phase of the peace plan between Israel and Hamas, under Qatari auspices.
Despite the slight decline, the precious metal remains supported by strong structural factors, including the global economic slowdown, accommodative Federal Reserve policies, and continued central bank purchases.
In the oil market, West Texas Intermediate crude fell to $62 a barrel, while Brent crude fell to $65 following news of a preliminary agreement between Israel and Hamas to end the two-year-old war. This development mitigated the geopolitical risk premium on energy prices, and pressure increased with the release of data from the US Energy Information Administration showing a 3.7 million-barrel increase in crude inventories last week—a rise exceeding market expectations of 2.3 million barrels.
However, a 763,000-barrel drop in inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma, hub helped limit the losses.
In cryptocurrency markets, Bitcoin corrected its recent gains and fell below the $125,000 pivot level to settle near $122,200, amid a slowdown in upward momentum and profit-taking after previous strong gains.
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