Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines

The dollar is stable at 97.8, awaiting inflation data (PPI today – CPI tomorrow).

Gold holds near $3,620 an ounce, near a record high.

Jobs revisions reveal 911,000 fewer jobs than previously estimated, boosting bets on a rate cut.

Markets are pricing in a 25 basis point cut next week, with some bets on a larger 50 basis point cut.

Geopolitical tensions are escalating: Israel is conducting operations in Qatar, Gaza, Iran, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.

Oil rises: Brent at $66, WTI above $63, supported by Middle East risks and modest OPEC+ production increases.

Bitcoin ETFs see strong inflows despite retail withdrawals.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Up
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3,646.32

Scenario 1: Buy gold with a breakout and stability above 3,651.56, targeting 3,660.59 and then 3,668.76.

Alternative scenario: Sell gold on a break and hold below 3,636.24, targeting 3,626.79 and then 3,617.70.

Comment: Gold maintains its positive momentum, and a break above current resistance will support the continuation of the upward trend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: sideways bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 62.920

Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and hold above 63.353, targeting 63.712 and then 64.060.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and hold below 62.402, targeting 62.090 and then 61.660.

Comment: Oil faces strong resistance near $63, and a break above it could open the door to higher levels.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Sideways
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.17132

Scenario 1: Buy the euro on a breakout and hold above 1.17429, targeting 1.17604 and then 1.17811.

Alternative scenario: Sell the euro on a break and hold below 1.16921, targeting 1.16746 and then 1.16544.

Comment: The euro is attempting to rebound after a pullback, with the 1.1740 resistance level remaining the deciding factor for the next move.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: Sideways
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.35403

Scenario 1: Buy the pound with a break and hold above 1.35572, targeting 1.35748 and then 1.35947.

Alternative scenario: Sell the pound on a break and hold below 1.35280, targeting 1.35081 and then 1.34891.

Comment: The pound is fluctuating near important resistance levels, and a break above 1.3560 could restore bulls’ control.

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NAS100

 

General trend: Up
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 23,913.50

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold above 23,987.25, targeting 24,106.50 and then 24,214.25

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq on breakout and hold below 23,830.25, targeting 23,725.50 and then 23,617.50

Comment: The Nasdaq maintains an upward trend, and a break above 23,987 will enhance the chances of targeting new highs.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

Consumer Price Index (MoM) – August – 04:30.

Consumer Price Index (YoY) – August – 04:30.

Producer Price Index (YoY) – August – 04:30.

From the United States of America:

Producer Price Index (MoM) – August – 15:30.

Producer Price Index (YoY) – August – 15:30.

Crude oil stocks – 17:30.

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index held steady at 97.8 on Wednesday after rising in the previous session, as investors await key inflation data that will determine the direction of the US Federal Reserve. The Producer Price Index (PPI) is due today, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) tomorrow, the two most influential data ahead of the interest rate meeting.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ revisions showed that the US economy added 911,000 fewer jobs in the period through March, an average of 76,000 fewer jobs on a monthly basis, confirming a weaker labor market than previously estimated. This, coupled with a weak August report that showed a marked slowdown, has reinforced expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut next week, with some forecasting a larger move. Markets are pricing in a total of 66 basis points of cuts this year.

Gold held steady near $3,620 an ounce, supported by a combination of a weaker dollar, interest rate cut expectations, and broader geopolitical risks.

In energy markets, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose above $63 a barrel, gaining for the third consecutive session. Support came from tensions in the Middle East, after Israel carried out fresh regional strikes, as well as OPEC+’s limited production increase in October, which was lower than in previous months. However, industry data showed US inventories rose by 1.25 million barrels, which could limit gains in the short term.