Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines

The dollar held steady at 97.8 for the second straight session, awaiting CPI data.

Gold is at $3,640, near a record high, supported by bets on interest rate cuts.

Producer inflation (PPI) data unexpectedly fell to -0.1%, reinforcing expectations of a rate cut.

Markets are pricing in a 25 basis point cut next week, with a low probability (8%) of a larger 50 basis point cut.

Trump is pressuring the European Union to impose tariffs on China and India to pressure Russia.

Brent crude oil is at $69 and WTI at $63.7, maintaining gains for the third session, despite a 3.9 million barrel increase in US inventories.

Geopolitical tensions: Poland announces interception of Russian drones, and Israel targets Hamas leadership in Doha.

Charlie Kirk, a close Trump ally, was shot to death at Utah Valley University.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Down
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3,633.09

Scenario 1: Sell gold after breaking and holding below 3,620.95, targeting 3,611.51 and then 3,602.41.

Alternative scenario: Buy gold on a breakout and hold above 3,637.70, targeting 3,645.31 and then 3,653.48

Comment: Gold is declining under clear selling pressure near intermediate support, and a break below 3,620 could retest lower levels.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: Sideways
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 63.285

Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and hold above 63.655, targeting 64.014 and then 64.362.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and hold below 62.752, targeting 62.392 and then 61.962.

Comment: Oil is moving in a sideways range with strong volatility, and a break above 63.655 would be an important signal for a continued upward trend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Bearish
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.16925

Scenario 1: Sell the euro after a break and stability below 1.16786, targeting 1.16611 and then 1.16410.

Alternative scenario: Buy the euro on a break and hold above 1.17205, targeting 1.17469 and then 1.17676.

Comment: The euro is under sustained selling pressure and may continue its decline if it fails to reclaim 1.1720 as a broken support level.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: Bearish
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.35193

Scenario 1: Sell the pound after breaking and holding below 1.35076, targeting 1.34878 and then 1.34688.

Alternative scenario: Buy the pound with a break and hold above 1.35368, targeting 1.35544 and then 1.35743.

Comment: The pound is trading below its moving averages with weak upward momentum, suggesting continued selling pressure.

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NAS100

 

General trend: bearish sideways
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 23,883.25

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold above 23,987.25, targeting 24,106.50 and then 24,214.25

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq on breakout and hold below 23,830.25, targeting 23,725.50 and then 23,617.50

Comment: The Nasdaq is fluctuating near strong support areas, and a breakout or penetration from these levels will clearly determine the next trend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From the Eurozone:

Lending interest rate (September) – 15:15.

ECB Interest Rate Decision (September) – 15:15.

European Central Bank Press Conference – 15:45.

From the United States of America:

Core CPI (MoM – August) – 15:30.

Consumer Price Index (YoY – August) – 15:30.

Consumer Price Index (Monthly – August) – 15:30.

Unemployment complaint rates – 15:30.

Fed’s Balance Sheet – 23:30.

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index held steady at 97.8 on Thursday, awaiting consumer price inflation (CPI) data, which could determine whether the Federal Reserve will move toward a more aggressive interest rate cut.

The latest data on the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a surprise decline of -0.1% in August, following a 0.7% increase in July, confounding expectations for a slight increase. This surprise decline has boosted market confidence that the Federal Reserve will continue its accommodative monetary policy.

Markets are pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut at next week’s meeting, while expectations for a larger cut (50 basis points) remain limited at around 8%.

On the political front, the Trump administration announced its intention to appeal a court ruling temporarily blocking the removal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. Meanwhile, dovish nominee Stephen Meyer advanced his confirmation process to join the Federal Open Market Committee.

Gold continued to hold steady at $3,640, supported by bets on interest rate cuts and escalating geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East.

As for oil, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude held near $63.7, maintaining three days of gains despite a government report showing a 3.9 million barrel increase in US inventories, reflecting weak summer demand. However, tensions in the Middle East and global energy markets supported prices, particularly after Israel targeted Hamas’s leadership in Doha and Poland intercepted Russian drones.