enDaily Analysis 13/05/2025
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar maintains its gains thanks to progress in US-China trade negotiations.
The dollar index held near a one-month high of 101.6 on Tuesday, after rising more than 1% in the previous session.
Gold falls for the second day
The decline was driven by improved risk sentiment and reduced demand for safe-haven assets following progress in trade negotiations between the United States and China, where the two countries agreed to reduce tariffs on each other’s products.
The combined US tariff rate on Chinese imports will be reduced to 30% from 145%, while Chinese tariffs on US imports will be reduced to 10% from 125% in an arrangement lasting for 90 days.
Meanwhile, investors are now awaiting key US economic data due later this week, particularly Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures and Thursday’s April retail sales figures, which could provide further clarity on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path.
Oil retreats from a two-week high, with Brent crude trading at $64.00 and WTI at $61.00.
The United States and China announced on Monday a 90-day suspension of tariffs between them, raising hopes for a de-escalation in the trade war between the world’s two largest economies.
However, downward pressure remains on oil prices due to ongoing concerns about oversupply.
The latest signals from OPEC+ point to increased production in May and June.
Moreover, President Donald Trump indicated positive progress in nuclear talks with Iran, raising expectations that US sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports may be eased.
Meanwhile, traders are also monitoring developments in talks between Russia and Ukraine after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky invited President Trump to participate in potential peace talks in Turkey this week, as Kyiv continues to push for a ceasefire.
Bitcoin price began a new rally above $102,500. Bitcoin is now correcting its gains and trading below the resistance level at $103,500.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3261.71
First scenario: Buy gold with a break and hold above 3267.27, targeting 3276.30 and 3284.46.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and hold below 3254.00, targeting 3242.50 and then 3233.40.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $61.66 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a breakout and hold steady with a candle closing above $61.80, targeting $62.16 and then $62.51.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil after breaking $61.26, targeting $60.90 and then $60.47.
Comment: Trading below the resistance and moving averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.11158
First scenario: Buy the EUR/USD after breaking 1.11312, targeting 1.11573 and then 1.11779.
Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD after a breakout and hold steady with a candle closing below 1.10889, targeting 1.10715 and then 1.10513.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.32032
Scenario 1: Buy GBP/USD with a break and hold above 1.32127, targeting 1.32303 and then 1.32502.
Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD after breaking and closing below 1.31835, targeting 1.31636 and then 1.31446.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 20875
Scenario 1: Buy the Nasdaq after a breakout and hold steady with a close above 20948, targeting 21067 and then 21175.
Alternative scenario: Sell the Nasdaq after a break and close below 20,791, targeting 20,686 and then 20,578.
Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
From the United States of America Core Consumer Price Index (excluding food and energy) (MoM) (April) 15:30
From the United States of America Consumer Price Index (YoY) (April) 15:30
From the United States of America Consumer Price Index (MoM) (April) 15:30
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held near a one-month high of 101.6 on Tuesday, after rising more than 1% in the previous session.
The rise came after news that the United States and China had reached a temporary agreement to reduce tariffs, easing recession fears.
Following successful negotiations in Switzerland over the weekend, Washington and Beijing agreed to reduce their tariffs to 30% and 10%, respectively, for 90 days.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant has indicated plans to meet with Chinese officials again in the coming weeks to begin discussions on a broader trade agreement.
The tariff rollback sparked optimism for the dollar, which had faced pressure earlier this year amid concerns that President Trump’s trade policies were reducing the attractiveness of US assets.
Investors are now turning to the latest consumer inflation report for clues on how the new tariff regime will affect prices.
Gold fell below $3,230 an ounce on Tuesday, marking its second straight day of losses and hovering around its lowest level in a month.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures fell to around $61.8 a barrel on Tuesday, retreating from a two-week high reached in the previous session, driven by progress in US-China trade negotiations.
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