enDaily Analysis 14/07/2025
Latest Economic Insights
The dollar index stabilizes around 97.8 amid anticipation of trade developments.
Gold continues to rise for the fourth session after the imposition of new tariffs.
Trump imposes 30% tariffs on EU and Mexican imports
Markets await US inflation data this week
Oil rises amid anticipation of Trump’s statement on Russia
Global growth concerns limit oil price gains
Bitcoin retreats slightly after hitting a new all-time high of $118,667.
Bitcoin price began a new decline, testing the $103,200 level. Bitcoin is now recovering and facing obstacles near the $107,000 level.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3357.29
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and hold above 3367.94, targeting 3376.98 and then 3385.14
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and hold below 3352.62, targeting 3342.38 and then 3334.08
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Upward
Timeframe: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $67.29 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and hold with a candle closing above $67.66, targeting $68.02 and then $68.36
Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break of $66.76, targeting $66.52 and then $66.39
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.16918
Scenario 1: Buy EUR/USD after breaking 1.17068, targeting 1.17329 and then 1.17536
Alternative scenario: Sell EUR/USD after breaking and holding steady with a candle closing below 1.16645, targeting 1.16471 and then 1.16269
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.34895
Scenario 1: Buy GBP/USD with a break and hold above 1.35073, targeting 1.35249 and then 1.35448
Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD with a break and hold with a close below 1.34782, targeting 1.34583 and then 1.34393
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 22860
Scenario 1: Buy the Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 22943, targeting 23062.5 and then 23170
Alternative scenario: Sell the Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close below 22786, targeting 22681.25 and then 22573.25
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
There is no important economic data today.
Fundamental Analysis
The US dollar index held steady around 97.8 on Monday, holding onto recent gains as investors assessed escalating trade tensions, particularly after President Trump imposed new 30% tariffs on imports from the European Union and Mexico, effective in early August.
Responses from the European and Mexican sides included a willingness to negotiate, while the European Union began consultations with other affected countries, such as Canada and Japan, to adopt a unified position on the US escalation.
This trade tension, coupled with investors awaiting a series of US data releases such as the Consumer Price Index, industrial production, and retail sales, has kept markets awaiting the Fed’s next decisions.
On the political side, uncertainty increased after economic advisor Kevin Hassett said Trump “has the right to fire” Jerome Powell if there is cause, casting further shadows over monetary policy expectations.
Gold prices rose to $3,360 an ounce, gaining for the fourth consecutive session, supported by safe-haven demand amid escalating trade tensions.
Oil prices also rose, with Brent crude trading above $70.4, supported by expectations of additional US sanctions on Russia and an upcoming statement from Trump that could impact the geopolitical landscape and global supplies.
In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin retreated slightly to $117,953 after hitting a new all-time high of $118,667 amid a strong bullish wave that swept the market last week.
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