enDaily Analysis 14/10/2025
Latest Economic Insights
Top headlines
The dollar holds gains above 99.2 as trade sentiment improves between Washington and Beijing.
Gold hits a new record high of $4,140 per ounce, supported by expectations of a US interest rate cut.
Oil erases early gains, falling to $63 for Brent and $59 for WTI as geopolitical risks recede.
Bitcoin is trading above $114,200 but faces strong resistance at $116,000.
Markets are awaiting Jerome Powell’s speech today at 7:20 PM for clues on the future course of monetary policy.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward, then strong correction after reaching a new high.
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes).
Current price: 4,110.
First scenario: Sell gold on a breakout and hold below 4,108, targeting 4,099 and then 4,090.
Alternative scenario: Buy gold on a breakout and hold above 4,133, targeting 4,141.
Comment: Gold experienced a sharp upward trend, followed by a sharp correction from approximately 4,180. A rebound from 4,108 will determine whether the correction continues or the start of a new upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
General trend: bearish within a short-term channel
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 58.85
First scenario: Sell oil on a breakout and hold below 58.50, targeting 58.13 and then 57.70.
Alternative scenario: Buy oil on a breakout and hold above 59.40, targeting 59.76 and then 60.10.
Comment: Oil is still trading under clear selling pressure below the moving averages, and as long as trading remains below 59.40, sellers remain in control.
EURUSD
General trend: Bearish after a failed test of resistance
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.1570
First scenario: Sell the euro on a breakout and hold below 1.1561, targeting 1.1544 and then 1.1524.
Alternative scenario: Buy the euro on a breakout and hold above 1.1596, targeting 1.1630 and then 1.1650.
Comment: The pair failed to break above the resistance at 1.1595 and resumed its sharp decline, reinforcing the continuation of the negative momentum in the short term.
GBPUSD
General trend: Strong bearish after failed rebound
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.3291
Scenario 1: Sell the pound with a break and hold below 1.3281, targeting 1.3261 and then 1.3242.
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound with a break and hold above 1.3333, targeting 1.3348 and then 1.3371.
Comment: The pound came under heavy selling pressure after a clear rejection at the 1.3340 area, and a return below 1.3280 would pave the way for a deeper decline towards the mid-1.32s.
NAS100
General trend: Strongly bearish after losing positive momentum
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 24,696
Scenario 1: Sell Nasdaq with a breakout and hold below 24,624, targeting 24,520 and then 24,412.
Alternative Scenario: Buy Nasdaq with a breakout and hold above 24,782, targeting 24,901 and then 25,008.
Comment: The Nasdaq is back under heavy selling pressure after a failed rebound, and momentum indicators confirm increasing weakness, especially with a negative close below 24,700.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s Speech – 7:20 PM
Fundamental Analysis
The US dollar index held above 99.2 on Tuesday, benefiting from easing trade tensions between the United States and China after both sides expressed willingness to resume trade negotiations ahead of a potential meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping later this month.
This development came after a volatile week that saw a sharp escalation from Washington when Trump threatened to impose new 100% tariffs on Chinese goods in response to Beijing’s recent restrictions on exports of rare earths and precision technologies. However, the tone quickly calmed with Trump’s statement that relations “will be fine,” restoring some confidence to markets and supporting the dollar.
On the domestic front, the US government shutdown continues to weigh on markets, with Treasury Secretary Scott Besant confirming that the shutdown is “already impacting economic activity” by delaying official data releases and slowing some federal services. However, markets are still pricing in a 97% chance of an October rate cut and a 90% chance of another cut in December, maintaining accommodative Fed policy expectations.
Investors are awaiting Jerome Powell’s speech this evening before the National Economic Association to see whether he will hint more clearly at a rate cut or attempt to calm the over-easing expectations reflected in the markets.
In metals markets, gold hit a new record high of $4,140 per ounce as safe-haven flows continued, driven by fears of slowing global growth and the US shutdown, along with rising expectations of interest rate cuts. Central bank purchases and increased institutional demand via exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also contributed to the metal’s strong upward momentum.
Oil pared early gains, with WTI falling to $59.1 and Brent falling to $63, as easing geopolitical concerns in the Middle East overshadowed trade optimism between Washington and Beijing. The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas held steady for the fourth consecutive day as prisoner swaps were implemented, reducing the risk premium on energy prices.
Oversupply concerns also increased pressure on prices, as production from OPEC+ and some non-OPEC producers rose at a faster-than-expected pace.
In contrast, Bitcoin continued its recovery to trade above $114,200 after a short correction, but it still faces strong resistance at $116,000. Technical indicators suggest the market may enter a sideways range before any further upward attempt.
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