Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic Insights

 

The dollar index holds above 98, near a three-week high.

Gold rises ahead of US inflation report

Trump threatens 100% tariffs on Russia and continues to escalate tariffs against the European Union and Mexico.

Markets await crucial US and Canadian inflation data

Oil falls for a second day as geopolitical concerns ease

Bitcoin surpasses $123,000, hitting an all-time high.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Upward

Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3,359.75
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and hold above 3,367.94, targeting 3,376.98 and then 3,385.14
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and hold below 3,352.62, targeting 3,343.18 and then 3,334.08
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward move

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Bearish

Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $65.63 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and hold with a candle closing above 66.14, targeting 66.50 and then 66.86
Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break of 65.24, targeting 64.88 and then 64.45
Comment: Trading below the resistance and averages suggests a continued decline unless 66.14 is breached

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Sideways with an upward slope

Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.16829
Scenario 1: Buy EUR/USD after breaking 1.17068, targeting 1.17329 and then 1.17536
Alternative scenario: Sell EUR/USD after breaking and consolidating with a candle closing below 1.16645, targeting 1.16471 and then 1.16269
Comment: The price is close to the resistance, breaking it will enhance the upward movement

GBPUSD

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Trend: Sideways

Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.34399
Scenario 1: Buy GBP/USD with a break and hold above 1.34537, targeting 1.34683 and then 1.34912
Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD with a break and hold with a close below 1.34246, targeting 1.34047 and then 1.33857
Comment: The market is fluctuating between two areas, and a break of either end may determine the next trend

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NAS100

 

Trend: Upward

Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 23,143.25
Scenario 1: Buy the Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 23,211.00, targeting 23,330.25 and then 23,438.00
Alternative scenario: Sell the Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close below 23,054.00, targeting 22,941.60 and then 22,841.25
Comment: A strong rise and a break of the previous peak will push the price to more momentum

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From Spain: Core CPI (YoY) – 10:00

From the United States:

Core Consumer Price Index (MoM) – 15:30

Consumer Price Index (YoY) – 3:30 PM

Consumer Price Index (Monthly) – 3:30 PM

From Canada: Consumer Price Index (YoY) – 3:30 PM

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index held above 98 on Tuesday, maintaining its strength at a three-week high, supported by markets’ anticipation of the US inflation report, which will determine the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.

Previous statements by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that inflation could rise during the summer as a result of the new tariffs, leading markets to expect a postponement of the interest rate cut until the end of the year.

In contrast, President Trump returned to criticizing Powell, calling for a rate cut to 1% or lower, reigniting the debate over the central bank’s independence.

Trump continued his trade escalation by sending tariffs to 25 countries, imposing a 30% tariff on imports from the European Union and Mexico, and threatening to impose an additional 100% tariff on Russia if it does not end the war within 50 days.

The gold market responded to the tense atmosphere, rising to $3,340 an ounce as investors sought safety ahead of the inflation report.

Oil fell for a second day, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude trading at $66.70, affected by Trump’s statement about giving Russia a 50-day deadline to end the war, which eased concerns about new sanctions that could disrupt supplies.

Bitcoin hit a new all-time high, surpassing $123,000, after gains of more than 10% in a week, bringing the cryptocurrency’s market capitalization to nearly $4 trillion.