Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines

The dollar is steady near 97.6 ahead of this week’s Fed meeting.

Markets are pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut with a low probability of a larger 50 basis point cut.

Gold falls below $3,630 on profit-taking after hitting record highs last week.

Oil rises on Russian supply risks: Brent at $67, WTI at $62.9.

The Trump administration is renewing its attempts to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, raising concerns about the central bank’s independence.

US-China negotiations continue in Madrid amid global anticipation.

A large Bitcoin holder is selling again after the price touched $116,000 for the first time in three weeks.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: sideways, bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 3,642.44

Scenario 1: Buy gold on a breakout and hold above 3,650.23, targeting 3,659.26 and then 3,667.43.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on a breakout and hold below 3,634.90, targeting 3,625.46 and then 3,616.37.

Comment: Gold is moving around a pivotal support level with upward attempts, and a break above resistance would give a strong impetus to buyers.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General direction: Horizontal

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 62,859

Scenario 1: Buy oil on a break and hold above 63.266, targeting 63.626 and then 63.974.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on a break and hold below 62.363, targeting 62.004 and then 61.574.

Comment: Oil is fluctuating within a range between support and resistance, and a breakout of either extreme will determine the next direction.

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EURUSD

 

General direction: Horizontal

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.17197

Scenario 1: Buy the euro on a breakout and hold above 1.17507, targeting 1.17768 and then 1.17974.
Alternative scenario: Sell the euro on a breakout and hold below 1.17084, targeting 1.16910 and then 1.16708.

Comment: The euro maintains its trading near pivotal levels, waiting for a break is the key to entry.

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GBPUSD

 

General direction: Horizontal

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.35644

Scenario 1: Buy the pound on a breakout and hold above 1.35713, targeting 1.35889 and then 1.36088.
Alternative scenario: Sell the pound on a breakout and hold below 1.35421, targeting 1.35222 and then 1.35032.

Comment: The pound is showing relative weakness near resistance and may need additional momentum to confirm the trend.

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NAS100

 

General trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 24,137.25

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq on a breakout and hold above 24,202.00, targeting 24,321.25 and then 24,428.75.
Alternative Scenario: Sell Nasdaq on a breakout and hold below 23,940.25, targeting 23,832.00 and then 23,716.50.

Comment: Nasdaq continues to creep towards the tops, and a break of resistance will confirm the strong upward momentum.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From Japan: Public holiday – Respect for the Elderly Day.

From China: Retail Sales (YoY – August) – 05:00.

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index held steady at 97.6 on Monday, near a ten-week low, as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s decision at its meeting on Wednesday. Futures indicate markets are pricing in a 96% chance of a 25 basis point cut, compared to only a 4% chance of a larger half-point cut.

Focus is also on retail sales and industrial production data this week to gauge the strength of the economy, as well as whether nominee Stephen Miller will be sworn in in time to participate in the Fed meeting.

Internationally, central banks in China and Canada are expected to cut interest rates this week to support growth, while the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England are likely to keep their policies unchanged.

Gold fell below $3,630 an ounce, retreating from last week’s all-time high, as investors booked profits ahead of the Federal Reserve’s much-anticipated decision.

In energy markets, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose to $62.9 per barrel and Brent crude to $67, amid heightened geopolitical risks after Ukraine targeted Russia’s Kirishi refinery, one of the world’s largest with a capacity of 355,000 barrels per day. Despite the support provided by these developments, the outlook remains constrained by a global supply surplus and slowing US demand.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, rose to nearly $116,000 for the first time in three weeks, but a major holder of the currency has resumed selling after offloading $4 billion of his holdings last month, potentially increasing market pressure.