enDaily Analysis 15/10/2025
Latest Economic Insights
Top headlines
The dollar fell below 99 points for the second consecutive session after Powell’s cautious comments on the weakness in the labor market.
Gold hits a new record high of $4,180 an ounce as bets on interest rate cuts mount.
Oil falls to its lowest level since May amid expectations of a supply glut and US-China trade tensions.
Bitcoin holds above $115,000 but risks breaking the $110,000 barrier if pressure persists.
Powell warns of a sharp slowdown in hiring and asserts that “the US economy is more fragile than ever.”
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Continuous upward within a positive price channel
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 4,189
First scenario: Buy gold with a breakout and hold above 4,194, targeting 4,203 and then 4,211.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a breakout and hold below 4,179, targeting 4,169 and then 4,160.
Comment: Gold maintains its bullish structure as it continues to hold above the lower trend line, showing increasing buying power with each sub-correction.
CRUDE OIL
General trend: bearish but attempts to form a temporary bottom
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 58.25
First scenario: Buy oil with a breakout and stability above 58.63, targeting 59.06 and then 59.40.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a breakout and stability below 57.79, targeting 57.44 and then 57.00.
Comment: Oil is starting to show signs of weakening selling momentum, but stability below 58.60 maintains the bearish scenario in the near term.
EURUSD
General trend: Positive after breaking short-term resistance
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.1630
Scenario 1: Buy the euro on a breakout and hold above 1.1639, targeting 1.1665 and then 1.1686.
Alternative scenario: Sell the euro on a breakout and hold below 1.1597, targeting 1.1580 and then 1.1559.
Comment: The pair is trading above its moving averages for the first time in a week, indicating a gradual shift in momentum to the upside provided the price remains above 1.1610.
GBPUSD
General trend: Upward with strong acceleration after breaking multiple resistances.
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes).
Current price: 1.3364.
First scenario: Buy the pound with a breakout and hold above 1.3376, targeting 1.3394 and then 1.3414.
Alternative scenario: Sell the pound with a breakout and hold below 1.3347, targeting 1.3326 and then 1.3308.
Comment: Upward momentum is evident thanks to the break above the orange 200 moving average, but resistance at 1.3375 could act as a temporary barrier before the upside continues.
NAS100
General trend: Gradual recovery after a sharp downward wave
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 24,887
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a breakout and hold above 24,962, targeting 25,081 and then 25,188.
Alternative Scenario: Sell Nasdaq with a breakout and hold below 24,804, targeting 24,700 and then 24,592.
Comment: The Nasdaq is showing a technical rebound from a strong support area around 24,700, and a break above 24,960 could open the way for an upward wave toward 25,100 again.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
There are no important events today.
Fundamental Analysis
The US dollar index fell below 99 on Wednesday, marking its second consecutive daily loss, after Jerome Powell said the US labor market is “slowing at a worrying pace,” indicating that the Federal Reserve “will not hesitate to cut interest rates again” if indicators continue to weaken.
His comments came as markets are struggling with a lack of official economic data due to the government shutdown, now in its third week, increasing uncertainty and supporting expectations of accommodative policy.
Markets are currently pricing in a near-100% probability of an October rate cut, with another cut expected in December and three additional cuts expected in 2026. This reflects traders’ belief that the Fed will embark on a prolonged cycle of monetary easing to support the economy.
The dollar came under further pressure after Trump accused China of “economically hostile behavior” for halting imports of American soybeans, threatening to ban Chinese cooking oil exports in retaliation. Beijing responded with a warning of “reciprocal measures,” bringing trade tensions back to the forefront and negatively impacting risk appetite.
In Europe, the euro rose, supported by the French government’s plan to suspend controversial pension reforms, providing a boost to European markets. In Japan, the yen rose as traders unwound their positions in the “Takaichi deal” after public support for the new right-wing leader waned.
On the metals front, gold continued its historic rise, surpassing $4,180 an ounce, benefiting from expectations of further US interest rate cuts and deteriorating investor confidence in the dollar. Central bank purchases have increased in recent weeks as they seek to diversify their reserves away from the US currency.
Oil continued its sharp decline, reaching $58 for West Texas Intermediate and $62 for Brent, after the International Energy Agency warned of a historic oversupply that could exceed 4 million barrels per day in 2026. This raised concerns that prices could fall below $55 per barrel if global demand remains weak. US-China trade tensions also contributed to increased concerns about slowing energy demand.
In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin briefly rose to $115,000 before facing strong selling pressure, with technical forecasts indicating a potential test of the $110,000 support level if risk aversion persists in traditional markets.
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