Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines

The dollar holds steady at 97.3, near a two-month low ahead of the Fed meeting.

Markets are pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut tomorrow, with expectations of a further cut later.

Gold hits new high of $3,670 per ounce, supported by easing bets.

Oil holds gains: Brent at $67, WTI at $63.3.

The shutdown of a processing unit at Russia’s Kirishi refinery due to Ukrainian strikes raises supply risks.

The European Union is considering imposing sanctions on companies in India and China for supporting Russian oil trade.

Trump threatens “major” sanctions on Russia if Europe and NATO follow suit.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 3,690.40

Scenario 1: Buy gold with a breakout and stability above 3,693.92, targeting 3,702.95 and then 3,711.12.

Alternative scenario: Sell gold on a break and hold below 3,678.59, targeting 3,669.15 and then 3,660.92

Comment: Gold is moving with strong upward momentum, and a break above current resistance could push it to new levels near 3,700.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: sideways, bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 63.104

Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and hold above 63.524, targeting 63.883 and then 64.231.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and hold below 62.621, targeting 62.261 and then 61.831.

Comment: Oil is in a range bound, and a breakout of one of the edges will strongly determine the next trend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.17868

Scenario 1: Buy the euro on a breakout and hold above 1.18071, targeting 1.18332 and then 1.18539.

Alternative scenario: Sell the euro on a break and hold below 1.17648, targeting 1.17474 and then 1.17278.

Comment: The euro is approaching a major resistance level, and a breakout could strengthen the upward trend.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.36290

Scenario 1: Buy the pound with a break and hold above 1.36401, targeting 1.36577 and then 1.36776.

Alternative scenario: Sell the pound after breaking and holding below 1.36109, targeting 1.35942 and then 1.35721.

Comment: The pound faces immediate resistance at 1.3640, and a break above it would open the way to new higher levels.

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NAS100

 

General trend: strong upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 24,589.00

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold above 24,657.50, targeting 24,777.00 and then 24,884.50.

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq on break and hold below 24,500.50 with target at 24,395.75 and then 24,287.75

Comment: The Nasdaq is in a clear uptrend, with strong momentum pointing to the possibility of reaching new all-time highs.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From the United States:

Core Retail Sales (MoM – August) – 15:30

Retail Sales (Monthly – August) – 15:30

From Canada:

Consumer Price Index (YoY – August) – 15:30

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index held steady at 97.3 on Tuesday, trading near its lowest level in more than two months, as the Federal Reserve begins its two-day monetary policy meeting. Markets are anticipating a 25 basis point cut on Wednesday, the first such move since last December, with additional cuts of around 67 basis points priced in by the end of the year.

However, US President Donald Trump continues to pressure Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for a deeper cut, citing weakness in the housing market and the labor sector. Attention will also be focused on the quarterly economic outlook summary and the “dot plot” due tomorrow, as well as Powell’s remarks, which could set the direction of policy for the coming year.

Gold rose to a new record high near $3,670 an ounce on Tuesday, supported by strong bets on US monetary easing and increased demand for safe havens amid trade and geopolitical tensions.

In energy markets, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled at $63.3 per barrel, while Brent crude held gains near $67. These gains were fueled by repeated Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s Kirishi refinery and Primorsk terminal, two of Russia’s largest energy infrastructure hubs. The European Union is also considering sanctions on Chinese and Indian companies supporting Russian trade, heightening supply-side risks.

On the international trade front, Trump confirmed that the US-China negotiations in Madrid are going well, noting that he will meet face-to-face with President Xi Jinping on Friday to finalize the details.