enDaily Analysis 16/10/2025
Latest Economic Insights
Top headlines
The dollar fell below 98.5 for the third consecutive session amid escalating trade tensions and the ongoing government shutdown.
Gold hits a new record high of $4,220 per ounce, supported by growing expectations of a US interest rate cut.
Oil rises after India pledges to halt imports of Russian oil despite pressure from a global oversupply.
Bitcoin struggles to stay above $114,000 amid thin liquidity and fears of a wider correction.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward within a positive price channel
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 4,233
First scenario: Buy gold with a breakout and hold above 4,236, targeting 4,245 and then 4,253.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a breakout and hold below 4,221, targeting 4,211 and then 4,202.
Comment: Gold has regained its upward momentum after a limited corrective move toward 4,211, and the strong rebound from this area confirms continued buying power. Holding above 4,221 maintains the overall trend positive toward new higher levels.
CRUDE OIL
General trend: Upward sloping
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 58.37
First scenario: Buy oil with a breakout and stability above 58.70, targeting 59.06 and then 59.40.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a breakout and stability below 57.79, targeting 57.44 and then 57.00.
Comment: Oil is moving sideways, but stability above the short-term moving averages gives a slight advantage to the bullish scenario, especially if the 58.70 level is breached with a clear close.
EURUSD
General trend: Positive despite the current correction
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.1648
Scenario 1: Buy the euro on a breakout and hold above 1.1678, targeting 1.1704 and then 1.1725.
Alternative scenario: Sell the euro on a breakout and hold below 1.1630, targeting 1.1618 and then 1.1600.
Comment: The pair is experiencing a correction after a strong upward wave, but the technical structure remains supportive as long as the price is above 1.1628. A break above 1.1678 could restore the upward momentum toward new highs.
GBPUSD
General trend: bullish with the beginning of a slight correction.
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes).
Current price: 1.3413.
First scenario: Buy the pound with a breakout and hold above 1.3427, targeting 1.3445 and then 1.3464.
Alternative scenario: Sell the pound with a breakout and hold below 1.3398, targeting 1.3378 and then 1.3360.
Comment: The pair is in an uptrend in the short term, but the current overbought conditions support the possibility of a limited correction before resuming the upward trend. Holding above 1.3398 is essential to maintain the positive structure.
NAS100
General trend: Upward after breaking through strong resistance.
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes).
Current price: 25,010.
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a breakout and hold above 25,083, targeting 25,203 and then 25,310.
Alternative Scenario: Sell Nasdaq with a breakout and hold below 24,914, targeting 24,822 and then 24,713.
Comment: The index has made a clear break above the 200-period moving average, reinforcing the positive outlook for further gains. A break above 24,914 would signal the beginning of a short-term correction.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
From Britain: GDP (monthly) – 09:00
From the United States: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index – 3:30 PM
From the United States: Crude Oil Inventory – 19:00
From Canada: Speech by Bank of Canada Governor Macklem – 8:30 PM
From the United States: US Federal Reserve Balance Sheet – 23:30
Fundamental Analysis
The US dollar continued its slide below 98.50 on Thursday, marking its third consecutive decline due to escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, the ongoing US government shutdown in its third week, and growing expectations of two additional Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year.
The greatest pressure came after Jerome Powell’s recent remarks, in which he emphasized that “the labor market slowdown is becoming a reality,” which increased market bets on a 25 basis point rate cut in October and the possibility of another similar cut in December. Some financial institutions even expected up to three additional cuts in 2026 if weak employment and industrial activity persist.
Meanwhile, trade tensions escalated again after Washington accused China of expanding its restrictions on rare earth mineral exports, viewing this as a direct threat to global supply chains. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant responded that the United States could impose tariffs on Russian oil imports via China if a coordination agreement is reached with the European Union, a move aimed at undermining Moscow’s revenues.
Despite the tough tone, Bessent hinted that the trade truce could be extended for an additional three months if Beijing suspends its new export plans, slightly easing market concerns.
The US government shutdown has clearly begun to impact economic performance, with key data releases such as inflation and employment indicators delayed, making future Fed decisions dependent on “indirect signals” such as banking sector earnings reports and consumer spending.
In precious metals, gold continued its historic climb above $4,220 an ounce, benefiting from a weaker dollar, increased hedging against political and economic risks, and rising expectations of global monetary easing. Strong demand from central banks and institutional investors also contributed to the precious metal’s strong upward trend.
In contrast, oil prices recovered, with West Texas Intermediate crude rising to $59 and Brent to $62, after US President Trump announced that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had pledged to phase out imports of Russian oil. This move restored some optimism to the markets after the International Energy Agency warned of a supply surplus that could reach 4 million barrels per day in 2026. However, high US inventories (7.4 million barrels) remain a short-term downward pressure on prices.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, failed to gain further upward momentum, settling near $113,500, amid fears of a break above the $110,000 support level if investors continue to avoid riskier assets amid overall uncertainty.
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