Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines

The dollar fell to 96.7, near a two-and-a-half-month low ahead of the Fed’s decision.

Gold falls to $3,680 an ounce on profit-taking after hitting a record high of $3,700.

The Federal Reserve is poised to cut interest rates by 25 basis points today, and markets are pricing in further cuts through the end of the year.

US retail sales rise for the fourth consecutive month, confirming the resilience of consumption.

Oil holds gains near $68.40, with Brent and WTI at $64, supported by a 3.42 million barrel drop in US inventories.

Escalating Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries raise supply concerns.

Bitcoin is trading in a narrow range awaiting the Fed’s decision.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Short-term bullish with a bearish correction
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3,679.53

Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and hold above 3,688.14, targeting 3,697.18 and then 3,705.34.

Alternative scenario: Sell gold on a break and hold below 3,672.82, targeting 3,663.38 and then 3,655.95

Comment: Gold retreated after testing upper resistance, a break of nearby support could retest the 3,660 levels.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: Up
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 64.080

First scenario: Buy oil with a break and hold above 64.547, targeting 64.907 and then 65.254.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and hold below 63.644, targeting 63.285 and then 62.914.

Comment: Oil is rising strongly, but near an important resistance area. A clear breakout is needed to continue the upward trend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.17868

Scenario 1: Buy the euro on a breakout and hold above 1.18071, targeting 1.18332 and then 1.18539.

Alternative scenario: Sell the euro on a break and hold below 1.17648, targeting 1.17474 and then 1.17278.

Comment: The euro is approaching a major resistance level, and a breakout could strengthen the upward trend.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: Up
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.36428

Scenario 1: Buy the pound with a break and hold above 1.36627, targeting 1.36803 and then 1.37002.

Alternative scenario: Sell the pound after a break and stability below 1.36318, targeting 1.36136 and then 1.35946.

Comment: The pound faces strong resistance at 1.3660–1.3670, a break above which would boost the upside.

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NAS100

 

General trend: Upward but with a downward correction
phase Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 24,530.00

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold above 24,657.50, targeting 24,777.00 and then 24,884.50

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq on break and hold below 24,500.50 with target at 24,395.75 then 24,287.75

Comment: The Nasdaq is experiencing profit-taking after a sharp rise, and a return above 24,657.50 is needed to confirm the uptrend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

United Kingdom: Consumer Price Index (YoY – August) – 09:00

Eurozone: Consumer Price Index (YoY – August) – 12:00

Canada: Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision – 16:45

USA:

Crude Oil Inventory – 17:30

FOMC Economic Outlook – 9:00 PM

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision – 21:00

Federal Reserve Committee Report – 21:00

Jerome Powell’s Press Conference – 9:30 PM

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index settled at 96.7 on Wednesday, down about 1% since the start of the week and close to a two-and-a-half-month low, as investors await the Federal Reserve’s decision later this evening. The bank is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the first cut this year, with markets pricing in a total of 67 basis points of easing by the end of 2025.

Despite weak labor market data, retail sales for August showed growth of 0.6%, and the core control group grew by 0.7%, reflecting the continued resilience of US consumption. This mixed picture of a weak labor market and strong consumer spending has markets closely awaiting the dot plot and Jerome Powell’s remarks to determine whether the Fed is leaning toward an extended rate cut cycle.

Gold fell to $3,680 an ounce on profit-taking after touching $3,700 yesterday, but remains up more than 41% year-to-date, supported by strong demand from central banks and a shift away from the dollar.

In energy markets, Brent crude settled near $68.40 and West Texas Intermediate at $64, maintaining three consecutive days of gains. Prices were supported by US inventory data showing a 3.42 million barrel decline, double expectations, and continued Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and oil export facilities.

As for digital currencies, Bitcoin traded in a narrow range (down 2.3% since Friday), as investors await the Federal Reserve’s decision to assess the impact of monetary policy on high-risk assets.