enDaily Analysis 18/08/2025
Latest Economic Insights
The dollar index stabilizes around 97.8 amid anticipation of the upcoming meetings in Washington and Jackson Hole.
Gold falls to its lowest level in two weeks.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet in Washington today with European leaders to achieve a rapid settlement to the Ukraine crisis.
Oil falls ahead of talks, despite support from Asian demand expectations.
Bitcoin price drops sharply to around $115,900
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Sideways bearish
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3343
Scenario 1: Buy gold on a break and hold above 3350, targeting 3359 and then 3367
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on a break and hold below 3337, targeting 3325 and then 3316
Comment: Gold is fluctuating around the averages, and a breakout upwards or downwards will determine the next direction.
CRUDE OIL
General trend: Down
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 61.89
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and hold above 62.363, targeting 62.722 and then 63.070
Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and hold below 61.460, targeting 61.100 and then 60.670
Comment: Oil lost momentum after a temporary rise, and the market is waiting for a trend break to determine the direction.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.17008
Scenario 1: Buy the euro with a break and hold above 1.17198, targeting 1.17459 and then 1.17666
Alternative scenario: Sell the euro with a break and hold below 1.16804, targeting 1.16601 and then 1.16399
Comment: The euro is showing buying power near support areas, and breaking the resistance will enhance the continuation of the rise.
GBPUSD
General trend: Sideways
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.35521
Scenario 1: Buy the pound with a break and hold above 1.35675, targeting 1.35852 and then 1.36051
Alternative scenario: Sell the pound with a break and hold below 1.35384, targeting 1.35185 and then 1.34995
Comment: The price is trapped between nearby support and resistance, and the trend becomes clear with a break on one of the sides.
NAS100
General trend: Sideways with an upward slope
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 23873
Scenario 1: Buy the index with a breakout and hold above 23940, targeting 24060 and then 24167
Alternative scenario: Sell the index with a breakout and hold below 23783, targeting 23679 and then 23571
Comment: The index is moving in a narrow range, and a breakout to the upside may restore strong upward momentum.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
There is no economic event scheduled for today.
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held steady at 97.8 on Monday, as investors clung to a potential agreement to resolve the Ukraine crisis at a meeting in Washington between Trump and Zelensky, along with significant interest in the Jackson Hole symposium, which could determine the future of US monetary policy.
On the political front, Trump is seeking Zelensky’s support for a swift settlement. Although the previous meeting with Putin failed to achieve a ceasefire, Putin agreed to facilitate security guarantees for Ukraine as a step toward a possible settlement.
Regarding monetary policy, markets are pricing in an 84% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with larger moves ignored due to strong inflation and retail sales data.
Gold prices rose to $3,340 an ounce but remained near their lowest levels in two weeks, as geopolitical tensions temporarily eased.
Oil extended losses, with prices rising to around $63 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI), but remains under pressure ahead of the leadership meeting in Washington, despite expectations of strong demand from Asia.
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