Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines

The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected, and maintains its “meeting by meeting” approach.

The dollar stabilizes above 97 after a strong rebound, while gold continues its losses, settling near $3,650 per ounce.

Stephen Merrill dissents from the Fed’s decision and supports a further 50 basis point cut.

Oil continues to fall below $64 a barrel despite a 9.3 million barrel decline in US crude inventories.

The Bank of Canada cuts interest rates by 25 basis points, while the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are expected to maintain their monetary policy.

Bitcoin surpasses $116,500 and may gain upward momentum if it breaks $117,250.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bearish sideways
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3,658.52

Scenario 1: Buy gold with a breakout and stability above 3,667.48, targeting 3,676.51 and then 3,684.68.

Alternative scenario: Sell gold on a break and hold below 3,652.15, targeting 3,642.71 and then 3,633.61

Comment: Gold is trading below an important support area; a break of 3,652 will push the price further down towards 3,640.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: Sideways
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 63.549

First scenario: Buy oil with a break and stability above 63.966, targeting 64.338 and then 64.686.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and hold below 63.113, targeting 62.716 and then 62.286.

Comment: Oil faces strong resistance at 63.96, a breakout would trigger the completion of the upward wave.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Bearish in the short term.
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes).
Current price: 1.18115.

Scenario 1: Buy the euro on a break and hold above 1.18407, targeting 1.18678 and then 1.18885.

Alternative scenario: Sell the euro on a break and hold below 1.17994, targeting 1.17820 and then 1.17618.

Comment: The euro is losing its recent positive momentum after failing to hold above 1.1870.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: Bearish in the short term.
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes).
Current price: 1.36212.

Scenario 1: Buy the pound with a break and hold above 1.36504, targeting 1.36746 and then 1.37000.

Alternative scenario: Sell the pound on a break and hold below 1.36079, targeting 1.35880 and then 1.35691

Comment: The pound lost support at 1.3640 and is trading near its moving averages.

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NAS100

 

General trend: Up
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 24,630

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold above 24,684.25, targeting 24,803.50 and then 24,911.25

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq on break and hold below 24,503.10, targeting 24,422.50 and then 24,331.44

Comment: The Nasdaq rebounds after a sharp decline, and a break above 24,684 could reinforce the positive trend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

United Kingdom: Bank of England Interest Rate Decision (September) – 14:00

USA:

Unemployment complaint rates – 15:30

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (September) – 3:30 PM

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet – 23:30

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index held above 97 on Thursday, maintaining its strong gains from the previous session as markets reassessed the path of monetary policy following the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points.

Although the decision was widely expected, Jerome Powell’s tone was more cautious, emphasizing that the latest cut was part of risk management in response to the weak labor market, and that the central bank would proceed step by step without prior commitment to a larger pace of cuts. However, he indicated the possibility of two more cuts this year, while predicting a single cut in 2026, which was considered less dovish than market pricing.

The division within the Fed was limited, with Stephen Miller opposing the decision and pushing for a larger 50 basis point cut.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 basis points, highlighting a global trend toward more accommodative policies, while the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are expected to keep their policies unchanged this week.

On the commodities front, gold stabilized near $3,650 an ounce, maintaining its losses from the previous session following a stronger dollar. Despite rising by about 39% since the beginning of the year, profit-taking and pressure from the US currency temporarily curbed the upward momentum.

Crude oil continued its losses, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures falling below $64 a barrel, impacted by the US inventory report. Despite a significant 9.3 million barrel decline in inventories, the rise in distillate inventories to their highest level since January and the high adjustment factor gave the report a negative tone, along with ongoing concerns about slowing global demand.

In crypto markets, Bitcoin rose above $116,500, with investors anticipating whether it will succeed in breaking the resistance at $117,250, which could open the door to a new upward wave.