enDaily Analysis 19/08/2025
Latest Economic Insights
The dollar rises above 98.20 as investors await the Ukraine summit and Jerome Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole.
Gold holds near two-week lows around $3,330 an ounce.
Oil falls amid hopes for Russia-Ukraine peace talks, but remains under pressure from oversupply.
Bitcoin is showing signs of overvaluation, indicating a possible correction or sideways movement is imminent.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Sideways bearish
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3336.51
Scenario 1: Sell gold with a break and hold below 3331.10, targeting 3321.66 and then 3312.56
Alternative scenario: Buy gold with a break and hold above 3346.43, targeting 3355.46 and then 3363.62
Comment: Gold is moving in a narrow sideways range, and a break in either direction may determine the next direction.
CRUDE OIL
General trend: Down
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 62.09
Scenario 1: Sell oil with a break and hold below 61.79, targeting 61.44 and then 61.01
Alternative scenario: Buy oil with a break and hold above 62.70, targeting 63.06 and then 63.41
Comment: Oil is under selling pressure, but any break of the resistance may reverse the trend in the short term.
EURUSD
General trend: Bearish
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.16552
Scenario 1: Sell the euro with a break and hold below 1.16351, targeting 1.16177 and then 1.15975
Alternative scenario: Buy the euro with a break and hold above 1.16774, targeting 1.17035 and then 1.17241
Comment: The euro is facing strong resistance, and continuing to trade below it enhances the chances of a decline.
GBPUSD
General trend: Down
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.34992
Scenario 1: Sell the pound with a break and hold below 1.34871, targeting 1.34672 and then 1.34482
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound with a break and hold above 1.35162, targeting 1.35338 and then 1.35537
Comment: The pound is showing weakness near the support, and follow-up is necessary to confirm the trend.
NAS100
General trend: Down
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 23737.75
Scenario 1: Sell the Nasdaq with a break and hold below 23687.50, targeting 23583.00 and then 23474.75
Alternative scenario: Buy the Nasdaq with a break and hold above 23844.75, targeting 23964.00 and then 24071.50
Comment: The index is under selling pressure, but any upward break could change the short-term outlook.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
From Canada: Consumer Price Index (YoY) – July.
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index rose above 98.2 on Tuesday, extending gains from the previous session, buoyed by comments from US President Donald Trump following his summit with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders. Trump confirmed that he is working to arrange a face-to-face meeting between Zelensky and Putin, followed by a trilateral summit, raising some hopes for a resolution to the Ukraine crisis, although investors remain cautious about the possibility of an imminent breakthrough.
Zelensky explained that Ukraine has made an offer to purchase approximately $90 billion in American weapons as part of security guarantees, and that the details of this agreement are expected to be finalized within ten days.
In monetary policy, investors are awaiting the annual Jackson Hole symposium, which will be attended by Jerome Powell, for fresh signals on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, amid expectations of a rate cut in September.
On the market level:
Gold held steady at around $3,330 an ounce as investors weighed looming geopolitical tensions and the Fed’s economic outlook.
Oil fell to around $63.20 for West Texas Intermediate and $66 for Brent, due to hopes of a peace agreement that would open the door to wider Russian oil exports, along with continued pressure from abundant OPEC+ supplies.
Bitcoin has shown signs of overvaluation, raising the possibility of profit-taking or sideways movement in the near term.
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