Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic Insights

 

The dollar index continues its gains above 98.3, with Fed minutes and Powell’s Jackson Hole speech awaited.

Gold falls to a three-week low near $3,310 an ounce on a stronger dollar and declining risks.

Oil rises, supported by a 2.4 million barrel drop in US crude inventories, but gains remain limited by geopolitical developments.

China buys 15 shipments of Russian oil despite sanctions, reflecting the resilience of Russian exports.

Bitcoin falls below $113,000 as markets remain cautious ahead of Powell’s speech.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Upward
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3,324.95
Scenario 1: Buy gold on a breakout and hold above 3,330.65, targeting 3,338.65 and then 3,346.81
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on a breakout and hold below 3,314.29, targeting 3,304.85 and then 3,295.75
Comment: Gold is recovering after a strong rebound from support, and a breakout of nearby resistance may enhance the upward momentum.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: Sideways with an upward slope
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 62.202
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and hold above 62.453, targeting 62.812 and then 63.160
Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and hold below 61.550, targeting 61.190 and then 60.760
Comment: Oil is moving within a sideways range, and any clear break will determine the direction of the next movement.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Bearish
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.16261
Scenario 1: Buy the euro on a break and hold above 1.16530, targeting 1.16791 and then 1.16998
Alternative scenario: Sell the euro on a break and hold below 1.16107, targeting 1.15933 and then 1.15731
Comment: The euro is under selling pressure near support, but a slight rebound is possible at critical levels.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: Upward
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.35028
Scenario 1: Buy the pound with a break and hold above 1.35162, targeting 1.35338 and then 1.35537
Alternative scenario: Sell the pound with a break and hold below 1.34871, targeting 1.34672 and then 1.34482
Comment: The pound is showing strong momentum after an upward rebound from support levels, which enhances the chances of continuing the rise.

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NAS100

 

General trend: Down
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 23,368.25
Scenario 1: Buy the Nasdaq with a break and hold above 23,450.75, targeting 23,570.25 and then 23,677.75
Alternative scenario: Sell the Nasdaq with a break and hold below 23,293.75, targeting 23,189.00 and then 23,081.00
Comment: The Nasdaq is facing strong selling pressure after a sharp decline, and trading below the resistance may keep the downtrend in control.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From China: PBOC Key Lending Rate (July) – 04:00.

From New Zealand: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision – 05:00.

From the United Kingdom: Consumer Price Index (YoY) – July – 09:00.

From the Eurozone: Consumer Price Index (YoY) – July – 12:00.

From the United States of America:

Crude oil inventories – 17:30.

Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes – 21:00.

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index advanced above 98.3 on Wednesday, posting gains for the third consecutive session, as investors awaited the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July meeting. The meeting featured only two dissenting votes since 1993, with Christopher Waller and Michael Bowman calling for a 25 basis point rate cut rather than a hold.

Markets are now awaiting Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole for clearer clues on future monetary policy. Investors are currently pricing in an 85% probability of a September rate cut, anticipating cuts of approximately 54 basis points by the end of 2025. The dollar rose broadly, posting its biggest gains against the euro, the British pound, and the Australian dollar.

Gold fell to around $3,310 an ounce, approaching a three-week low, pressured by a stronger dollar and declining geopolitical risks, as markets await the Federal Reserve’s guidance.

As for oil, West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose above $62 a barrel after data from the American Petroleum Institute showed a larger-than-expected draw in inventories of 2.4 million barrels. Despite the support, gains were limited by expectations of potential peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, along with increased OPEC+ production, which has kept prices down more than 10% this month.

Bitcoin fell below $113,000 amid broad pressure on the cryptocurrency market ahead of the Fed Chair’s speech at Jackson Hole, which is expected to set the tone for liquidity and risk for riskier assets.