Daily Analysis 20/10/2025
Latest Economic Insights
Top headlines
The dollar stabilizes around 98.5 points as US-China trade tensions ease and tariff threats ease.
Gold rises again to $4,260 an ounce as concerns over the government shutdown and expectations of a rate cut persist.
Oil falls to $56 for West Texas Intermediate amid global oversupply concerns after IEA report.
Bitcoin is attempting to recover above $108,000, supported by a slight improvement in risk appetite.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.
GOLD

General trend: Upward within a positive price channel
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 4,236
First scenario: Buy gold with a breakout and hold above 4,241, targeting 4,250 and then 4,259.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a breakout and hold below 4,221, targeting 4,212 and then 4,203.
Comment: Gold is still moving within a strong ascending channel and respecting the 200-day moving average (orange) as a dynamic support level. Any stability above 4,221 enhances the chances of a renewed rally toward last week’s highs.
CRUDE OIL

General trend: Continuous downward trend under strong selling pressure.
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes).
Current price: 56.68.
First scenario: Sell oil with a break and hold below 56.32, targeting 55.96 and then 55.53.
Alternative scenario: Buy oil with a break and hold above 57.22, targeting 57.58 and then 57.93.
Comment: Oil faces strong resistance at 57.20 and remains below the moving averages, suggesting a continued decline unless it breaks through with a clear close.
EURUSD

General trend: bearish correction after a strong upward wave.
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes).
Current price: 1.1666.
Scenario 1: Buy the euro on a breakout and hold above 1.1678, targeting 1.1713 and then 1.1734.
Alternative scenario: Sell the euro on a breakout and hold below 1.1645, targeting 1.1628 and then 1.1607.
Comment: After last week’s breakouts, the pair has started a natural downward correction towards the orange 200-day moving average, and stability above 1.1645 will maintain the overall positive trend.
GBPUSD

General trend: bearish.
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes).
Current price: 1.3425.
First scenario: Buy the pound with a breakout and hold above 1.3444, targeting 1.3461 and then 1.3481.
Alternative scenario: Sell the pound with a breakout and hold below 1.3415, targeting 1.3395 and then 1.3377.
Comment: The pound is losing some positive momentum after a continued failure to surpass 1.3460, and stability below 1.3415 could open the door to a deeper correction in the short term.
NAS100

General trend: Strongly bullish after a technical rebound from support
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 25,117
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a breakout and hold above 25,166, targeting 25,286 and then 25,393.
Alternative Scenario: Sell Nasdaq with a breakout and hold below 25,009, targeting 24,905 and then 24,797.
Comment: The index is trying to regain its positive momentum after a strong rebound from 24,800, and stability above 25,000 will be key to continuing the uptrend today.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
There is no significant economic data scheduled today.
Fundamental Analysis
The US dollar index stabilized at 98.5 on Monday, maintaining its limited gains from the end of last week, amid a relative calm in trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.
US President Donald Trump stated that proposed retaliatory tariffs on China would be “economically unsustainable,” which investors interpreted as a signal that the US administration is willing to return to dialogue rather than escalate.
Treasury Secretary Scott Besant is scheduled to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng this week in a renewed effort to restore confidence to markets, amid expectations of a possible face-to-face meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month.
Meanwhile, the US government shutdown continues for the fourth consecutive week, dampening market confidence and hampering the release of key economic data. Investors are now focused on the September Consumer Price Index report, due on Friday, which is expected to show continued inflationary pressures despite slowing industrial activity and the labor market.
The US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy remains the focus of attention, with market expectations pointing to a 25 basis point cut at the October meeting, followed by an additional cut in December, and the possibility of three more cuts in 2026 if the economic slowdown continues.
Gold prices rose to $4,260 per ounce on Monday, following Friday’s decline, as strong demand for safe havens returned amid the ongoing US government shutdown and slowing trade negotiations.
Positive sentiment for the metal remains supported by heavy central bank buying and increased ETF inflows, boosting the annual performance to more than 60% year-to-date.
Crude oil prices fell again, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) falling to $56 a barrel and Brent to $60, affected by the International Energy Agency’s latest report raising estimates of a global oversupply through 2026.
Declining geopolitical risks in the Middle East after Israel and Hamas confirmed their commitment to a ceasefire also contributed to calming prices.
However, losses were mitigated by the partial shutdown of a Russian gas processing facility following a Ukrainian drone attack, reviving concerns about Russian energy supplies.
Bitcoin is attempting to recover from its recent losses, trading around $107,500 to $108,000, with a potential target of $109,500 if investor risk appetite improves in the coming sessions.
However, sentiment remains cautious due to high volatility and low liquidity resulting from the current decline in institutional interest in digital assets.
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