enDaily Analysis 21/07/2025
Latest Economic Insights
The dollar stabilizes at 98.4 after two weeks of gains.
Gold rises for a second session amid tariff concerns
US Commerce Secretary: August 1 deadline for implementing new tariffs
Investors await comments from Powell and Bowman to clarify interest rate policy.
Oil rises amid new EU sanctions on Russia
Tariff concerns limit oil gains
Bitcoin hits new highs above $123,000 as Ethereum and XRP surge
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Horizontal
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3,355.32
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a breakout and stability above 3,362.37, targeting 3,371.40 and then 3,379.57.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on a break and hold below 3,342.79, targeting 3,337.60 and then 3,328.50.
Comment: Gold is in a sharp range, and a breakout to either end will drive the next move.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Horizontal
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 66.04
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and hold above 66.32, targeting 66.83 and then 67.18.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil after breaking the 65.57 level, targeting 65.21 and then 64.78.
Comment: The price is moving sideways near the averages, and breaking them may determine the next direction.
EURUSD
General trend: Horizontal
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.16210
Scenario 1: Buy EUR/USD after breaking 1.16493, targeting 1.16754 and then 1.16961.
Alternative scenario: Sell EUR/USD after a break and stability below 1.16071, targeting 1.15896 and then 1.15695.
Comment: The price is fluctuating near close levels, and a breakout is the key to the next move.
GBPUSD
Trend: Horizontal
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.34139
Scenario 1: Buy GBP/USD with a break and stability above 1.34292, targeting 1.34426 and then 1.34625.
Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD after breaking and holding below 1.33958, targeting 1.33759 and then 1.33569.
Comment: Continued failure to break the averages keeps the trend temporarily sideways.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 23,264.00
Scenario 1: Buy the Nasdaq on a breakout and hold above 23,350.75, targeting 23,470.00 and then 23,577.75.
Alternative scenario: Sell the Nasdaq on a break and hold below 23,193.75, targeting 23,089.00 and then 22,980.75
Comment: Continued consolidation above the averages supports the positive outlook unless the support is broken.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
There are no major economic events today.
Fundamental Analysis
The US dollar index held steady at 98.4 after two weeks of gains, as markets awaited upcoming trade developments, particularly after the US Commerce Secretary stated that August 1 is the deadline for the implementation of tariffs on more than 150 trading partners, despite potential negotiations continuing after that date.
On the monetary policy front, Fed member Christopher Waller indicated his support for a rate cut in July due to the weak labor market and low inflationary pressures, stressing that the impact of tariffs would be temporary, giving the Fed flexibility in monetary easing.
The dollar fell slightly against the yen after the ruling coalition’s defeat in Japan’s elections added some political volatility to Asian markets.
Gold rose to around $3,350 an ounce, supported by growing concerns about the impact of US tariffs on the global economy, as investors turned to gold as a safe haven.
In energy markets, Brent crude rose to $69 and West Texas Intermediate to $67.5, supported by new European Union sanctions on Russia, which included lowering the price cap for Russian oil and restrictions on foreign banks and refineries. However, concerns about a decline in demand due to tariffs limited gains.
Cryptocurrencies have made significant gains, with Bitcoin surpassing $123,000, supported by a general surge in the cryptocurrency market. However, some analysts have warned that implementing the new legislation may take longer than expected.
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