Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic Insights

 

The dollar index holds near 98.3 as markets await Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

Gold falls to $3,340 an ounce ahead of the Fed’s annual meeting.

Fed minutes reveal internal split between inflation concerns and labor market risks.

Oil rises, supported by a 6 million-barrel drop in US crude inventories, but concerns about a supply glut weigh on the market.

Coinbase CEO predicts Bitcoin will reach $1 million, but first hints at $124,000 target.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Sideways bullish
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3338
Scenario 1: Buy gold by breaking the 3347 level, targeting 3356 and then 3364
Alternative scenario: Sell gold by breaking the 3336 level, targeting 3332 and then 3322
Comment: Gold is fluctuating near the main resistance, and breaking it increases the possibility of a continued rise.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: Upward
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 62.98
Scenario 1: Buy oil by breaking 63.34, targeting 63.70 and then 64.05
Alternative scenario: Sell oil by breaking 62.44, targeting 62.08 and then 61.65
Comment: Oil is testing important resistance, and breaking it may open the way for further gains.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Upward
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.1641
Scenario 1: Buy the euro by breaking the 1.1664 level, targeting 1.1690 and then 1.1711
Alternative scenario: Sell the euro by breaking the 1.1622 level, targeting 1.1605 and then 1.1585
Comment: The euro is moving near resistance, and the buying momentum may push it to test higher levels.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: Bearish
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.3455
Scenario 1: Sell the pound by breaking 1.3441, targeting 1.3421 and then 1.3402
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound by breaking 1.3468, targeting 1.3487 and then 1.3507
Comment: The pound is facing selling pressure near the support, and stability below it may accelerate the decline.

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NAS100

 

General trend: Upward
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 23348
Scenario 1: Buy NASDAQ by breaking 23431, targeting 23550 and then 23657
Alternative scenario: Sell NASDAQ by breaking 23273, targeting 23169 and then 23061
Comment: The index is trading in an upward range, and breaking the resistance enhances the chances of the trend continuing.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

Unemployment complaints rates – 3:30 PM.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (August) – 3:30 PM.

Manufacturing PMI (August) – 16:45.

Services PMI (August) – 16:45.

Existing Home Sales (July) – 17:00.

Fed’s Balance Sheet – 23:30.

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index held near 98.3 on Thursday, following a recent wave of gains, as markets closely watched the Jackson Hole symposium and Jerome Powell’s speech for guidance on monetary policy.

Futures indicate an 82% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, down from 94% the previous week. This reflects increased caution after the July meeting minutes showed a split among policymakers: some focused on persistent inflationary pressures, while others warned of a slowing labor market.

In Washington, the controversy escalated after President Trump called for the resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over mortgage corruption allegations and continued to push for lower interest rates. Meanwhile, Trump floated alternative candidates to lead the Fed as Powell’s term ends next May, while Treasury Secretary Scott Besant supported a larger half-percentage-point cut in September.

Gold prices fell to around $3,340 an ounce as investors awaited the opening of the three-day Jackson Hole Symposium, one of the world’s most important economic forums.

Oil benefited from a significant drop in US inventories, which fell by 6 million barrels to 420.7 million barrels, more than four times what was expected. This supported prices, with West Texas Intermediate crude futures rising to around $62.80. However, the overall outlook remains cautious, with prices down more than 10% since the beginning of the year due to the return of OPEC+ production and market concerns about weak demand due to Trump’s tariff policies.