enDaily Analysis 21/10/2025
Latest Economic Insights
Top headlines
The dollar holds steady around 98.6 amid the ongoing government shutdown and investor monitoring of trade developments and monetary policy.
Gold holds near record highs of $4,340 per ounce, supported by strong safe-haven demand and interest rate cut expectations.
Oil continues to fall to $56.80 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate as oversupply deepens and floating storage at sea reaches record levels.
Bitcoin pares recent gains after testing $111,800 amid fluctuating investor appetite for riskier assets.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward within an oscillating price channel
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 4,325
First scenario: Buy gold with a breakout and hold above 4,335, targeting 4,346 and then 4,355.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a breakout and hold below 4,314, targeting 4,303 and then 4,292.
Comment: Gold is currently trading in the middle of an ascending channel, and its rebound from the 200-day moving average confirms that buyers will remain in control as long as the price remains above 4,314.
CRUDE OIL
General trend: Attempting to break the downward trend
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 57.09
First scenario: Buy oil with a breakout and hold above 57.40, targeting 57.76 and then 58.10.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a breakout and hold below 56.49, targeting 56.13 and then 55.70.
Comment: Oil is attempting to break the short-term downtrend line, and stability above 57.40 will shift the momentum to the upside.
EURUSD
General trend: Clearly bearish after breaking strong technical supports.
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes).
Current price: 1.1625.
First scenario: Sell the euro on a breakout and hold below 1.1608, targeting 1.1591 and then 1.1570.
Alternative scenario: Buy the euro on a breakout and hold above 1.1650, targeting 1.1676 and then 1.1697.
Comment: The pair is moving under strong selling pressure supported by the price stability below the orange 200 moving average, which maintains the negative outlook in the short term.
GBPUSD
General trend: Bearish in the short term
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.3378
Scenario 1: Sell the pound with a break and hold below 1.3368, targeting 1.3349 and then 1.3330.
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound with a break and hold above 1.3411, targeting 1.3420 and then 1.3435.
Comment: The pound is facing increasing pressure as it fails to break above its moving averages, suggesting a continued downtrend towards 1.3340 before a potential rebound.
NAS100
General trend: Bullish in the short term, but with an ongoing technical correction.
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes).
Current price: 25,270.
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a breakout and hold above 25,376, targeting 25,495 and then 25,603.
Alternative Scenario: Sell Nasdaq with a breakout and hold below 25,177, targeting 25,114 and then 25,006.
Comment: The index is showing a downward correction after a strong upward wave, but its stability above the 25,100 level maintains the overall bullish framework.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
From Canada: Consumer Price Index (YoY) – September – 3:30 PM.
Fundamental Analysis
The US dollar index traded sideways around 98.6 on Tuesday, continuing the relatively calm trading week as investors awaited a resolution to the US government shutdown, developments in trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing, and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, which is expected to result in a further 25 basis point interest rate cut.
White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett said the government shutdown could end this week, giving markets a slight boost of optimism, but the lack of official economic data due to the shutdown kept the mood on edge.
On trade, US President Donald Trump confirmed that he expects to reach a “fair deal” with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping during the summit scheduled for South Korea later this month. Investors viewed this as an indication of a more positive tone in bilateral relations, especially after US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant met with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Malaysia this week.
Meanwhile, markets continue to price in two rate cuts this year (October and December) and three potential cuts in 2026 if the labor market remains weak and growth slows.
Gold settled at $4,340 an ounce after hitting new record highs in the previous session, supported by expectations of a US interest rate cut and increased demand from central banks for the precious metal.
Investors continue to hedge against risks to the US economy and the government shutdown, reinforcing gold’s long-term uptrend, which has risen more than 60% since the beginning of the year.
Crude oil prices fell, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) falling to $56.8 a barrel and Brent falling to $61, amid a record high in global floating storage of more than 1.24 billion barrels of oil and condensate, reflecting a worsening market surplus.
Additional pressure came from the ongoing trade uncertainty between the United States and China, which threatens global energy demand.
Although a Ukrainian attack on a Russian gas facility last week caused a partial shutdown, its positive impact on prices was limited due to the prevailing concerns about oversupply.
Bitcoin attempted to recover above $108,000 and reached $111,800 in Tuesday’s trading, but failed to hold onto gains as risk appetite waned in the markets.
Despite the recent declines, analysts still believe that Bitcoin’s stability above $107,000 maintains a neutral-to-bullish technical trend in the short term, with strong technical resistance at $109,500–$112,000.
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