enDaily Analysis 22/07/2025
Latest Economic Insights
The dollar fell for a third session amid anticipation of the outcome of trade negotiations.
Gold hovers near 5-week high supported by trade uncertainty
European-American talks to try to avoid Trump’s tariffs
Investors await Powell’s remarks to clarify the Fed’s position.
Oil falls for a third session on demand concerns and trade tensions.
The market ignores the latest European sanctions on Russian energy.
Iran to resume nuclear talks this week to avoid sanctions
Bitcoin falls below $119,000 after bullish momentum slows
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3,389.72
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and hold above 3,397.16, targeting 3,406.20 and then 3,414.36.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on a break and hold below 3,381.84, targeting 3,372.39 and then 3,363.30.
Commentary: Gold maintains its upward momentum and approaches strong resistance. Confirmation of the breakout could open the way for further gains.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Bearish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 65,257
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a breakout and stability above 65.767, targeting 66.189 and then 66.537.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil after breaking the 64.927 level, targeting 64.567 and then 64.137.
Comment: Clear selling pressure on oil, and a break below support could accelerate the decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.16851
Scenario 1: Buy EUR/USD after breaking 1.17121, targeting 1.17382 and then 1.17589.
Alternative scenario: Sell EUR/USD after breaking and holding below 1.16699, targeting 1.16524 and then 1.16322.
Comment: The pair continues to rise and tests new resistance, with clear support from the moving averages.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.34790
Scenario 1: Buy GBP/USD after breaking 1.34945, targeting 1.35121 and then 1.35320.
Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD after breaking and holding below 1.34654, targeting 1.34455 and then 1.34265.
Comment: The pair is correcting after a strong rise, and stability above the moving averages supports the continuation of the positive trend.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 23,346.00
Scenario 1: Buy the Nasdaq on a break and hold above 23,429.50, targeting 23,549.00 and then 23,656.50.
Alternative scenario: Sell the Nasdaq after breaking the 23,306.14 level, targeting 23,272.50 and then 23,167.75.
Comment: The index continues to move positively and targets new highs, with support from the moving averages
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
From the United States: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks – 3:30 PM
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index fell below 98 for a third session, as markets focused on US-EU trade negotiations ahead of the August 1 deadline. Trump threatened to impose tariffs of up to 30% on EU exports if no agreement is reached.
The US Treasury Secretary stated that the administration prioritizes “the quality of agreements over speed,” with the possibility of extending the deadline for countries that demonstrate progress.
All eyes are on Jerome Powell today, as investors await his comments for fresh clues on monetary policy, especially given Trump’s repeated pressure to cut interest rates, although markets have not yet anticipated any rate cut this month.
Gold fell slightly to $3,380 an ounce, but remains near a five-week high, supported by trade uncertainty and market concerns about escalating tariffs.
Oil extended losses for a third session, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude falling to $65.6 a barrel, weighed down by concerns about declining demand amid trade tensions, while markets relatively shrugged off recent European sanctions on Russian energy.
In a geopolitical context, Iran announced that it will resume nuclear agreement talks with European powers this week, in an attempt to avoid new international sanctions, adding a new dimension to global energy volatility.
Bitcoin retreated slightly to settle below $119,000, losing its recent upward momentum, recording a 3% weekly decline.
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