Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines

The dollar holds its gains at 98.9 points, supported by a weaker yen and improved trade expectations.

Gold falls to $4,100 an ounce after a wave of profit-taking from previous record highs.

Oil continues its slight rise to $58 a barrel after US inventories fell by 3 million barrels.

Bitcoin is fluctuating around $108,000 amid thin liquidity and investor caution.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bearish corrective after a strong upward wave
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 4,132

First scenario: Sell gold on a breakout and hold below 4,129, targeting 4,115 and then 4,098.
Alternative scenario: Buy gold on a breakout and hold above 4,156, targeting 4,167 and then 4,183.

Comment: Gold failed to hold above 4,156 after a breakout attempt, reflecting clear selling pressure. Holding below this level could push the price toward 4,115 in the near term.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: Short-term bullish after breaking through important resistance
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 58.26

First scenario: Buy oil with a breakout and hold above 58.62, targeting 58.98 and then 59.33.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a breakout and hold below 57.71, targeting 57.36 and then 56.92.

Comment: Oil broke the resistance area at 57.70, giving the price a positive boost. A return below this level would confirm a loss of upward momentum.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Bearish
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.1607

First scenario: Sell the euro on a breakout and hold below 1.1587, targeting 1.1570 and then 1.1550.
Alternative scenario: Buy the euro on a breakout and hold above 1.1630, targeting 1.1653 and then 1.1676.

Comment: The pair remains under pressure from the three moving averages, confirming the downward trend as long as it does not break the 1.1630 level with a clear close.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: Strongly bearish
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.3327

First scenario: Sell the pound with a break and hold below 1.3320, targeting 1.3300 and then 1.3280.
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound with a break and hold above 1.3349, targeting 1.3367 and then 1.3386.

Comment: The pound is experiencing a sharp sell-off after failing to hold above 1.3370, reinforcing the short-term downtrend towards 1.33.

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NAS100

 

General trend: sideways bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 25,318

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a breakout and hold above 25,365, targeting 25,484 and then 25,591.
Alternative Scenario: Sell Nasdaq with a breakout and hold below 25,207, targeting 25,103 and then 24,995.

Comment: The Nasdaq is moving in a range between 25,200 and 25,360, and a breakout of either side will determine the next direction — with a slight positive bias as long as the price remains above the orange 200 moving average.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From UK: Consumer Price Index (YoY) (September) – 09:00.

From the United States: US crude oil inventories – 17:30.

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The US dollar index held steady at 98.9 on Wednesday after a strong rally in the previous session, as investors continued to assess the future of US monetary policy amid the extended government shutdown and the changing tone of trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.

The dollar received additional support from the weakness of the Japanese yen, after expectations that new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will adopt expansionary fiscal policies, including new stimulus packages, strengthened, leading to a decline in demand for the Japanese currency as a safe haven.

On the international trade front, US President Donald Trump stated that he remains “optimistic” about reaching a positive agreement with China, but warned that the scheduled meeting with President Xi Jinping “may be delayed a little bit” due to logistical reasons.
Meanwhile, Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, indicated that the government shutdown could end this week, giving markets a limited boost.

Investors’ focus now turns to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due on Friday, which will largely determine the pace of Fed rate cuts in the coming months, especially after markets began pricing in a confirmed 25 basis point cut next week, and a high probability of another cut in December.

Gold prices retreated to $4,100 an ounce after a sharp decline of more than 5% in the previous session—the largest daily drop since 2021—due to widespread profit-taking following record highs above $4,300.
Improved risk appetite in the markets, supported by hopes for progress in the US-China trade war, also impacted demand for gold as a safe haven.
Furthermore, a decline in physical demand from India following the end of the wedding and festival season contributed to a weakening of the physical market.
Despite the correction, the precious metal remains up more than 60% year-to-date, supported by persistent expectations of further US interest rate cuts and global economic uncertainty.

Crude oil prices continued to rise, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rising to $57.50 a barrel and Brent to $62 a barrel, after data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed inventories falling by 3 million barrels last week—the first decline in four weeks.
The data also showed a decline in fuel and gasoline stocks, supporting prices in the short term.
However, challenges remain, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) warning of a record surplus expected in 2026 due to increased production from OPEC+ and other producers, coupled with slowing global demand.
On the other hand, Trump’s comments about India’s plans to reduce its imports of Russian oil, in addition to the US Department of Energy’s intention to add 1 million barrels to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, helped limit losses and keep prices above technical support levels.

Bitcoin continues to trade in a narrow range between $108,000 and $111,800, failing to maintain the gains it recorded earlier in the week.
Despite attempts at recovery, risk appetite remains weak in digital markets, with investors shifting toward safer assets such as gold and US bonds.
Technically, the $107,000 level remains key support, while the $112,000 area represents crucial resistance to any new upside wave.