Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines

The dollar index fell to 97.3, marking its second consecutive decline.

Fed comments call for caution, while gold continues to hit record highs near $3,750.

Oil holds steady near $67 Brent and $62 WTI amid oversupply concerns.

The European Union proposes new sanctions on Russia, and Iraq increases exports.

Bitcoin fails to settle above $117,750 and is heading towards testing support at $113,200.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 3,750

Scenario 1: Buy gold with a breakout and stability above 3,761.00, targeting 3,770.03 and then 3,778.20.

Alternative scenario: Sell gold on a break and hold below 3,745.67, targeting 3,736.23 and then 3,727.13

Comment: Gold is moving within an ascending channel, and any break above 3,761 will reinforce the continuation of the upward trend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 61.81

Scenario 1: Buy oil with a breakout and stability above 62.463, targeting 62.823 and then 63.171.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and hold below 61.561, targeting 61.201 and then 60.771.

Comment: Oil is pressing critical support levels, and any break below 61.5 could pave the way for further declines.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.1788

Scenario 1: Buy the euro with a breakout and stability above 1.18196, targeting 1.18457 and then 1.18664.

Alternative scenario: Sell the euro on a break and hold below 1.17773, targeting 1.17599 and then 1.17397

Comment: The euro is trying to consolidate at the 1.1770 support level, and a break above 1.1820 is the key condition for an upward move.

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GBPUSD

 

General direction: Horizontal

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.3510

Scenario 1: Buy the pound with a breakout and stability above 1.35260, targeting 1.35436 and then 1.35635.

Alternative scenario: Sell the pound after a break and stability below 1.34968, targeting 1.34769 and then 1.34580.

Comment: The pound is moving in a narrow resistance/support range, and the next breakout will determine the direction.

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NAS100

 

General trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 25,005

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a breakout and hold above 25,065.50, targeting 25,184.75 and then 25,292.25

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq on break and hold below 24,908.25, targeting 24,803.75 and then 24,695.50

Comment: The Nasdaq is holding above 25,000, and a break above 25,065 could trigger a new upward wave.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

United States: Manufacturing PMI (September) – 16:45

United States: Services PMI (September) – 16:45

United States: President Trump’s Speech – 4:50 PM

United States: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks – 7:35 PM

Canada: Speech by the Governor of the Bank of Canada – 9:15 PM

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index fell below 97.3 on Tuesday, marking its second consecutive session of losses, as markets parsed comments from Federal Reserve officials for clearer clues on the path of monetary policy.

Several Federal Reserve officials have emphasized caution in any further rate cut, while St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musallam indicated that room for further easing is limited due to inflationary pressures. In contrast, new Fed Governor Stephen Merrill expressed concerns that the bank is underestimating the amount of tightening needed, warning of risks to the labor market.

All eyes are on Jerome Powell’s speech this evening and additional comments from Fed officials, as well as the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index report due Friday, the central bank’s preferred measure of inflation.

Politically, ongoing negotiations in Congress to avoid a government shutdown at the end of September have contributed to increased uncertainty in the markets.

Gold continued its record run, reaching $3,750 per ounce, supported by hopes of further interest rate cuts and safe-haven flows amid economic and political uncertainty.

In contrast, oil prices stabilized at $67 Brent and $62.20 WTI, influenced by opposing factors: concerns about a supply surplus due to increased Iraqi exports and the possibility of resuming Kurdistan shipments, and ongoing risks to Russian supplies and proposed new European sanctions.

In the crypto market, Bitcoin retreated after failing to break above $117,750, with a test of key support at $113,200 anticipated, reflecting traders’ caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decisions.