Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines

The dollar rises above 99 points as markets await US inflation data due on Friday.

Gold fell for the third consecutive session, losing 6% from its recent peak, amid improved risk appetite and trade optimism.

Oil jumps 3% to $60 a barrel after Washington announces new sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil.

Bitcoin is attempting to recover above $108,000, with the potential for further gains if it breaks the resistance at $109,500.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: temporary upward rebound after a sharp decline.
Time interval: 30 minutes.
Current price: 4,119.

First scenario: Buy gold if it breaks and holds above 4,138, targeting 4,149 and then 4,165.
Alternative scenario: Sell if it breaks 4,111, targeting 4,097 and then 4,080.

Comment: Gold rebounded strongly from the 4,080 support level, but the 4,138 area currently represents important resistance, and a break above it would open the way for a short-term upward wave.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: Strongly bullish after breaking $60.
Time interval: 30 minutes.
Current price: 60.48.

Scenario 1: Buy oil if it breaks and holds above 61.03 with targets at 61.39 and then 61.74.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil if it breaks 60.13 with targets at 59.77 and then 59.34.

Comment: Oil is experiencing strong momentum driven by clear buying, but its proximity to the 61.00 supply zone could prompt a correction before any further upside.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Continuous downward trend within a lower price channel.
Time interval: 30 minutes.
Current price: 1.1595.

Scenario 1: Sell on a break of 1.1580 with targets at 1.1562 and then 1.1542.
Alternative scenario: Buy above 1.1622 with targets at 1.1648 and then 1.1669.

Comment: The dollar’s continued consolidation is pushing the euro into further downside pressure, and selling is recommended on every bounce below 1.1620.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: bearish but with the beginning of an upward correction.
Time interval: 30 minutes.
Current price: 1.3349.

First scenario: Sell from 1.3357 to 1.3366 with targets towards 1.3348 and then 1.3317.
Alternative scenario: Buy only with a break of 1.3367 and stability above it with targets at 1.3384 and then 1.3404.

Comment: The pair rebounded from the 1.3320 support, but is facing a strong supply zone between 1.3350 and 1.3370 that may temporarily hinder the upward move.

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NAS100

 

General trend: short-term bearish with upward correction
Time interval: 30 minutes
Current price: 25,086

First scenario: Sell from 25,099 levels with targets towards 25,004 and then 24,900.
Alternative scenario: Buy with a breakout of 25,161 with targets towards 25,281 and then 25,388.

Comment: The Nasdaq is trying to move back above the 200 moving average (orange line), but failure to hold above 25,160 will return the downside momentum towards 24,900.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

Unemployment complaints rates – 3:30 PM.

Existing Home Sales (September) – 17:00.

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The US dollar index edged up slightly above 99.0 on Thursday, continuing its recovery from the previous session’s losses as markets awaited Friday’s September inflation report, which could provide a crucial signal on the direction of monetary policy during the fourth quarter.

The US government shutdown, which has been ongoing for more than three weeks, continues to complicate markets’ assessment of the economic situation, as the release of important official data has been delayed. President Donald Trump rejected a request from Democratic Party leaders to hold a meeting until the shutdown ends, further deepening the political deadlock.

On the monetary front, markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, followed by a second cut in December, with expectations growing for an additional cut in 2026 if signs of labor market weakness persist.

On trade, Trump confirmed that his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping was “officially scheduled,” boosting market sentiment and alleviating concerns about trade tensions between the two countries. The dollar also benefited from the weakness of the British pound and the Japanese yen, following the release of negative inflation data in Britain and rising expectations of broad fiscal stimulus in Japan.

Gold prices fell to around $4,080 an ounce on Thursday, marking their third consecutive daily decline after the metal lost more than 6% from its recent record high.
Pressure on the precious metal came from improved risk appetite and growing optimism regarding a potential US-China trade deal, along with Trump’s more measured rhetoric toward Beijing, which dampened demand for gold as a safe haven.

Despite this decline, gold remains up more than 55% since the beginning of the year and nearly 5% this month, supported by expectations of two additional Federal Reserve interest rate cuts before the end of the year, in addition to new US sanctions on Russia, which have maintained some geopolitical demand for the metal.

Crude oil prices jumped about 3% on Thursday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rising above $60 a barrel and Brent crude climbing to $64, after the United States announced sanctions on Russian companies Rosneft and Lukoil, which together account for nearly half of Russia’s oil exports (2.2 million barrels per day).

This move comes as part of a new escalation against Moscow following its rejection of a ceasefire in Ukraine. President Trump also pledged to discuss Russian oil imports with Chinese President Xi Jinping during the upcoming summit.
Meanwhile, the European Union agreed to a new package of sanctions against Russia, which will be formally adopted on Thursday, providing short-term support to prices, although concerns about a global oversupply continue to limit any significant price gains.

Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize above $107,500–$108,000 after a week of limited volatility, with the potential for further gains if technical resistance at $109,500 is breached.
However, the overall trend remains neutral in the short term, as the cryptocurrency market remains subject to fluctuations in the dollar and global liquidity indicators.