Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines:

The U.S. dollar declines to its lowest level since early October amid strengthening market expectations for interest rate cuts.

Gold reaches a record high, underpinned by increased safe-haven demand.

Crude oil prices remain broadly stable, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions despite persistent annual headwinds.

Bitcoin enters a consolidation phase as market participants attempt to establish a new upward trend.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

Trend: Bullish within an ascending channel
Timeframe: 30-minute
Current Price: 4,488.78
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above: 4,496.15
Targets: 4,507.61, followed by 4,522.73
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a breakdown below: 4,469.28
Targets: 4,454.90, followed by 4,438.30
Comment: Gold continues to trade strongly within the ascending channel. Any break below 4,469 is likely to trigger only a temporary corrective pullback, rather than a reversal of the broader bullish trend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Bullish
Timeframe: 30-minute
Current Price: 57.958
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 58.109
Upside Targets: 58.469, then 58.816
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 57.611
Downside Targets: 57.287, then 56.821
Comment: Oil prices remain in an upward trend after breaking through prior resistance levels. Caution is warranted near overbought zones, as short-term pullbacks may occur despite the prevailing bullish bias.

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EURUSD

 

Trend: Bullish
Timeframe: 30-minute
Current Price: 1.17815
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.17901
Upside Targets: 1.18162, then 1.18368
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.17630
Downside Targets: 1.17467, then 1.17254
Comment: The pair continues to form higher highs and higher lows, maintaining a bullish trend. The overall positive bias remains intact as long as price stays above 1.17630

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: Bullish
Timeframe: 30-minute
Current Price: 1.35079
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.35169
Upside Targets: 1.35345, then 1.35544
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.34878
Downside Targets: 1.34679, then 1.34489
Comment: The bullish momentum is evident following the breakout. Any pullback should be considered a corrective opportunity within the prevailing uptrend.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Bullish
Timeframe: 30-minute
Current Price: 25,697.50
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 25,764.75
Upside Targets: 25,884.00, then 25,991.75
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 25,667.97
Downside Targets: 25,607.75, then 25,503.00
Comment: The index is progressing in an upward wave following a strong breakout. Any decline toward 25,667 is likely corrective as long as the price remains above 25,607

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From the United States:
Gross Domestic Product (GDP), QoQ / Q3 — 16:30
CB Consumer Confidence Index (December) — 18:00

Fundamental Analysis

 

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The U.S. Dollar Index declined to around 98 on Tuesday, marking its lowest level since early October, amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may pursue further interest rate cuts next year. This shift comes as signals of cooling inflation and a softening labor market continue to emerge.
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Dollar and Monetary Policy

Markets are currently pricing in two quarter-point rate cuts in 2026, supported by economic data pointing to a gradual slowdown in activity, alongside calls from U.S. President Donald Trump to lower borrowing costs in order to support economic growth.

However, divisions remain evident within the Federal Reserve. Some policymakers have warned that recession risks could intensify if monetary policy is not adjusted, while others argue that the current policy stance is appropriately restrictive and warrants a pause to allow time to assess the impact of the significant rate cuts implemented earlier this year.

• Additional pressure on the dollar followed a strengthening of the Japanese yen after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to their highest level in three decades, prompting investors to rebalance positions across currency markets.

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Gold continued its strong upward momentum, reaching a new record high above $4,480 per ounce, marking one of the most powerful rallies in its modern trading history.
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The surge has been driven by a combination of interrelated factors, including:

Expectations of a more accommodative U.S. monetary policy stance

Escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly between the United States and Venezuela

Sustained and robust purchases by central banks

Steady inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs)
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As a result, gold has gained approximately 70% year-to-date, positioning it for its strongest annual performance since 1979, and reaffirming its role as a primary safe-haven asset amid heightened global uncertainty.

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Oil prices traded in a narrow range, with Brent crude hovering near $61 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) around $57 per barrel.
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Prices found support from escalating geopolitical tensions, as:

The United States confirmed efforts to reclaim a third oil tanker off the Venezuelan coast.

Ukraine continued to target Russian energy infrastructure, including vessels and port facilities in the Black Sea, a critical corridor for Russian energy exports.
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Although Venezuela’s oil exports account for a relatively small share of global supply, any disruption remains politically and economically sensitive, particularly amid tighter U.S. sanctions.
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Nevertheless, crude prices remain on track for an annual decline, as concerns persist over a potential global supply surplus next year, driven by increased output from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers.