enDaily Analysis 24/07/2025
Latest Economic Insights
Dollar falls near 97 amid progress in trade talks
Gold maintains decline as risk sentiment improves
A potential trade agreement between the US and the European Union includes a 15% tariff.
Markets await the Federal Reserve meeting and expectations of an interest rate cut in October.
Oil rises on trade optimism and falling US inventories.
Crude and gasoline inventories fall, distillates rise
A meeting between Washington and Beijing is expected next week in Stockholm.
Bitcoin is close to breaching $120,250 to continue its upward momentum.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Down
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3,377.32
Scenario 1: Sell gold with a break and stability below 3,371.01, targeting 3,361.57 and then 3,352.47.
Alternative scenario: Buy gold with a candle close above 3,386.34, targeting 3,395.37 and then 3,403.53.
Comment: Clear selling pressure after breaking the ascending channel, and stability below the moving averages increases the likelihood of a continued decline.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Sideways
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 65.682
Scenario 1: Buy oil by breaking the 65.830 level, targeting 66.189 and then 66.537.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil by breaking the 65.244 level, targeting 64.567 and then 64.137.
Comment: The price is trying to break through the moving averages, but it still needs a clear breakout confirmation to maintain the upward momentum.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.17669
Scenario 1: Buy EUR/USD with a candle close above 1.17932, targeting 1.18194 and then 1.18400.
Alternative scenario: Sell with a break of 1.17510, targeting 1.17335 and then 1.17134.
Comment: The price is correcting after a strong bullish wave, and the uptrend will remain intact unless the support is broken.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.35679
Scenario 1: Buy GBP/USD after breaking 1.35888, targeting 1.36064 and then 1.36263.
Alternative Scenario: Sell after breaking 1.35597, targeting 1.35398 and then 1.35208.
Comment: The price has started to decline from the resistance zone, and stability above the moving averages remains supportive of the bullish scenario.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 23,389.00
Scenario 1: Buy the Nasdaq on a break of 23,461.50, targeting 23,581.00 and then 23,688.50.
Alternative scenario: Sell on a break of 23,304.50, targeting 23,200.00 and then 23,091.75.
Comment: A clear breakout above previous resistance with strong consolidation, but the bullish momentum must be confirmed.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
Unemployment complaint rates – 15:30
Manufacturing and Services PMI (July) – 16:45
New Home Sales (June) – 17:00
Fundamental Analysis
The US dollar index fell toward 97.0 on Thursday, approaching a three-week low, amid a rise in other currencies such as the euro and yen, due to optimism about an imminent trade agreement between the United States and the European Union.
The proposed agreement includes a uniform 15% tariff on EU imports into the US, a significant relief from previous threats of tariffs of up to 30%. The new agreement is similar to the one reached with Japan this week.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant also confirmed that the tariff truce with China may be extended beyond August 12, with a meeting scheduled for next week in Stockholm. This development boosted risk appetite and pressured the dollar.
On the monetary policy front, markets are awaiting the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week, which is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, with a likely cut in October, amid concerns about tariff-driven inflation.
Gold held steady near $3,390 an ounce, maintaining losses from the previous session due to lower safe-haven demand following an improvement in market sentiment.
Oil prices rose after four days of declines, driven by a 3.2 million-barrel drop in US crude inventories and a drop in gasoline inventories, indicating strong domestic demand.
Bitcoin continued its upward trend, stabilizing above $118,500 and heading toward a breakout of the $120,250 resistance level, which could provide it with additional upward momentum in the short term.
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