Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines:

The U.S. dollar declined to its lowest level in over 12 weeks, as markets continue to price in expectations of interest rate cuts.

Gold surged to a new record high above $4,500, driven by strong demand for safe-haven assets.

Oil prices remained broadly stable, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions despite mounting concerns over excess supply.

Bitcoin failed to maintain its upward momentum, returning to selling pressure as bullish sentiment weakened.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

Trend: Upward within a channel
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: $4,495.32
Primary Scenario (Bullish): Buy on a breakout above $4,504.88
Targets: $4,516.34, then $4,531.45
Alternative Scenario (Bearish): Sell on a break below $4,481.37
Targets: $4,463.62, then $4,447.03
Comment: Gold is respecting the ascending channel. Any pullback toward $4,481 should be considered a correction, as long as the low remains above $4,463.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Upward
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: $58.50
Primary Scenario (Bullish): Buy on a breakout above $58.664
Targets: $59.024, then $59.371
Alternative Scenario (Bearish): Sell on a break below $58.166
Targets: $57.806, then $57.376
Comment: Oil is trading within a well-defined upward trend. A break below $58.16 may signal a deeper correction.

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EURUSD

 

Trend: Upward
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.18003
Primary Scenario (Bullish): Buy on a breakout above 1.18087
Targets: 1.18348, then 1.18555
Alternative Scenario (Bearish): Sell on a break below 1.17834
Targets: 1.17642, then 1.17460
Comment: The pair remains stable above key moving averages, and bullish momentum is likely to continue as long as 1.178 holds.

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: Upward
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.35227
Primary Scenario (Bullish): Buy on a breakout above 1.35342
Targets: 1.35518, then 1.35717
Alternative Scenario (Bearish): Sell on a break below 1.35051
Targets: 1.34852, then 1.34662
Comment: The pair maintains a clear upward structure, and any pullback toward 1.348 should be considered corrective.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Upward
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 25,794.00
Primary Scenario (Bullish): Buy on a breakout above 25,853.00
Targets: 25,972.25, then 26,080.00
Alternative Scenario (Bearish): Sell on a break below 25,742.93
Targets: 25,696.00, then 25,591.25
Note: The index is in a sideways corrective phase above key moving averages, and the uptrend remains intact as long as price stays above 25,742

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From the United States:
Initial Jobless Claims — 16:30
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories — 18:30

Fundamental Analysis

 

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The U.S. dollar retreated to around 97.7 on Wednesday, marking its lowest level since early October, as markets remain convinced that the Federal Reserve has additional room to cut interest rates in 2026, amid easing inflationary pressures and a moderating labor market.
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Dollar and Monetary Policy
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Although recent data showed strong economic growth in the third quarter, it failed to alter the prevailing market trend.
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Investors continue to believe that:

Job creation remains solid but is gradually slowing.

Inflation continues to decline, reducing the need for a restrictive monetary policy stance.
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Markets are currently pricing in two interest rate cuts in 2026, supported by:

Moderating inflation

Slowing labor market

Growing political pressure from President Trump for a more accommodative monetary policy.

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In this broader context, the U.S. dollar is on track for its worst annual performance in more than two decades, amid a year characterized by heightened volatility, trade tariffs, and growing concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence, alongside seasonal year-end portfolio rebalancing.
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Additional downward pressure on the greenback has been fueled by:

Strong inflows into precious metals

A sharp appreciation of the Japanese yen following interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan

An escalation in global geopolitical tensions.

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Gold extended its historic rally, posting a new all-time high above $4,500 per ounce, supported by a confluence of reinforcing factors:

Expectations of further U.S. monetary easing.

Rising geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Venezuela and Russia.

Continued strong purchasing by central banks.

Steady inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
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As a result, gold is up approximately 70% year-to-date, putting it on track for its strongest annual performance since 1979, reinforcing its status as one of the primary beneficiaries of the current global uncertainty environment.