enDaily Analysis 25/08/2025
Latest Economic Insights
The dollar index rose near 98 after last week’s losses, supported by expectations of a rate cut.
Gold falls to $3,360 an ounce as the dollar stabilizes and fears subside.
Oil holds gains: Brent at $67, WTI at $63.
Zelenskyy pledges to defend Ukraine amid Russian escalation and attacks on energy facilities.
Washington threatens to double tariffs on Indian imports to 50% over continued purchases of Russian oil.
US debt increases by an additional $1 trillion in just 48 days.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward after a rebound
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3,361.62
Scenario 1: Buy on breakout and hold above 3,371.20, targeting 3,380.23 and then 3,388.40
Alternative scenario: Sell on break and hold below 3,355.88, targeting 3,347.62 and then 3,337.34
Comment: Gold rebounded from a pivotal low, and stability above 3,360 reinforces the short-term positive trend.
CRUDE OIL
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 63,630
Scenario 1: Buy on breakout and hold above 63.838, targeting 64.198 and then 64.546
Alternative scenario: Sell on break and hold below 62.936, targeting 62.576 and then 62.146
Comment: Oil maintains positive momentum supported by the trend line, and a break of 63.80 will reinforce the upward trend.
EURUSD
General trend: bullish after a sharp breakout
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.16965
Scenario 1: Buy on break and hold above 1.17238, targeting 1.17500 and then 1.17706
Alternative scenario: Sell on break and hold below 1.16816, targeting 1.16641 and then 1.16440
Comment: The euro broke through important resistance levels, and stability above 1.1700 supports the continuation of the uptrend.
GBPUSD
General trend: Upward in the short term
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.34936
Scenario 1: Buy on break and hold above 1.35087, targeting 1.35263 and then 1.35462
Alternative scenario: Sell on break and hold below 1.34796, targeting 1.34692 and then 1.34407
Comment: The pound has shown strong upward momentum, but it needs to break the 1.3510 resistance to confirm continued upward movement.
NAS100
General trend: Upward after a strong rebound
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 23,536.50
Scenario 1: Buy on breakout and hold above 23,632.75, targeting 23,752.00 and then 23,859.50
Alternative scenario: Sell on break and hold below 23,475.50, targeting 23,371.00 and then 23,262.75
Comment: The Nasdaq rebounded strongly from key support levels, and stability above 23,600 supports continued upward movement.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
From the USA: New Home Sales (July) – 17:00.
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index rose toward 98 on Monday, recouping some of its losses from the previous session, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possibility of a rate cut in his Jackson Hole speech. Powell explained that unemployment remains low, but labor market risks are rising, and that monetary policy remains “constrained,” making adjustments likely. He also noted the role of tax, trade, and immigration reform in reshaping the U.S. economy.
Markets have raised the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September to 87%, up from 75% last week. All eyes are now on the July personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data, due out Friday, as the Fed’s preferred inflation measure.
Gold fell to $3,360 an ounce after rising more than 1% in the previous session, as the dollar regained some strength following Powell’s remarks.
As for oil, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled near $64 a barrel, maintaining last week’s gains, supported by expectations of monetary policy easing in the United States and supply risks amid the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict.
On the geopolitical front, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy pledged to continue defending his country after reports of attacks on Russian energy facilities, including the Kursk nuclear power plant. Meanwhile, Washington escalated its pressure on India, threatening to raise import tariffs to 50% due to its continued purchases of Russian oil, raising concerns about global energy supplies.
Separately, financial pressures on the United States increased after the federal debt increased by $1 trillion in just 48 days, reigniting debate about the sustainability of US fiscal policy.
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